城市脆弱性的动态演变与模拟预测——以乌鲁木齐市为例

Dynamic evolution and simulation prediction of urban vulnerability:take Urumqi City as an example

针对目前对我国西部城市的城市脆弱性综合研究比较缺乏的现状,以乌鲁木齐市为主要研究对象,筛选出50个具体评价指标,从资源、生态、社会和经济等四个方面构建了城市脆弱性评价指标体系,并采用综合指数分析法,对乌鲁木齐市2006—2016年的城市脆弱性进行了综合评价。结果表明:2006—2016年乌鲁木齐市城市综合脆弱性指数处于下降状态;生态脆弱性和经济脆弱性呈现出不同程度的下降趋势,资源脆弱性整体上较为平稳,但社会脆弱性逐渐增长,尤其是在2014—2016年的增长趋势更加明显。此外,构建了三套预测模型,并从中优选出精度最高的模型对乌鲁木齐市城市脆弱性进行了预测。得出2016—2019年乌鲁木齐市的城市脆弱性会呈现上升,2019年后趋于下降。最后,有针对性地提出了乌鲁木齐市在未来城市发展中减少城市脆弱性需要注意和改善的问题。相关内容可为乌鲁木齐市城市脆弱性的调控决策提供科学依据,为我国其他中西部城市的城市脆弱性研究提供参考。

At present,there is a lack of comprehensive research on urban vulnerability of western cities in China.Taking Urumqi as an example,according to 50 specific evaluation indexes from 2006 to 2016,this paper makes a comprehensive evaluation and dynamic evolution prediction of its vulnerability from four aspects:resources,ecology,economy and society.The results showed that the urban comprehensive vulnerability index of Urumqi City from 2006 to 2016 was in a state of decline.Ecological vulnerability and economic vulnerability show a decreasing trend in varying degrees,and the overall vulnerability of resources is relatively stable,but the social vulnerability gradually increases,especially during 2014—2016 the growth trend is more obvious.The main influencing factors of urban vulnerability are extracted by using the contribution rate calculation method and the correlation coefficient analysis method,then the prediction model is constructed and the model with the highest precision is selected for prediction.The results show that the urban vulnerability of Urumqi City will fluctuate slightly and increase during 2016—2019,and then decrease after 2019.Finally,the paper puts forward the problems to be improved in future development of Urumqi City.This study can provide a reference for the study of urban vulnerability in other central and western cities in China,and also provide scientific basis for urban vulnerability control and decision-making in Urumqi City.