复杂不确定环境下雄安新区多水源联合配置

Joint allocation of multiple water sources in Xiongan New Area under complex and uncertain environment

雄安新区水资源条件先天不足,用水形势十分严峻,存在多条河道常年断流、白洋淀多次遭遇干淀危机、地下水埋深不断增加等水资源问题。雄安新区正处在规划建设阶段,未来发展存在复杂不确定性,亟需对水资源进行科学合理的规划、管理及配置,以解决存在的水问题,这对雄安新区未来建设有着重要的理论和现实意义。文章首先对雄安新区2025和2035水平年的复杂不确定环境进行概化,开展供需水量预测。然后基于Water Evaluation and Planning System(WEAP)模型,构建雄安新区多水源联合配置模型,得到配置结果。结果表明,2025和2035水平年,丰、平水年方案不缺水,枯水年方案缺水量(率)分别为2.56亿m^(3)(40.3%)和1.96亿m^(3)(21.3%)。通过南水北调中线雄安调蓄库的建设与实施,可进一步解决雄安新区枯水年缺水问题,提高供水保证率。

The water resources in Xiongan New Area are naturally inadequate,and the water shortage situation is very severe.There are many water problems such as the drying up of rivers and Baiyangdian Lake and increasing depth of groundwater.Xiongan New Area is in the stage of planning and construction.There are complex uncertainties in its future development.It is urgent to solve the existing water problems through scientific and rational planning,management and allocation of water resources,which has important theoretical and practical significance for the future construction of Xiongan New Area.First,the complex and uncertain environment of Xiongan New Area in 2025 and 2035 is generalized,and the water supply and demand predictions are carried out.Based on the Water Evaluation and Planning System(WEAP)model,the joint allocation model of multiple water sources in Xiongan New Area is constructed.Then the allocation results are obtained.The results show that in 2025 and 2035,water shortage is not found in schemes for wet and normal year,and water shortage(ratio)is 256 million m^(3)(40.3%)and 196 million m^(3)(21.3%)respectively in schemes for dry years.Through the construction and implementation of Xiongan Reservoir in the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the problem of water shortage in Xiongan New Area in dry years can be further solved,and the guarantee rate of water supply can be improved.