省域电子商务高质量发展的测度与动态演进分析

Measurement and Dynamic Evolution Analysis of High-quality Development of Provincial E-commerce

从规模水平、经济地位、发展支撑、竞争能力、协同发展和共享发展六个维度构建电子商务高质量发展评价指标体系,基于熵权TOPSIS法测度2015—2020年省域电子商务高质量发展水平,并借助核密度估计和马尔科夫链方法分析其动态演进特征。结果显示,电子商务高质量发展整体呈上升趋势,但发展差异持续扩大;动态视角来看,电子商务发展处于高水平的省份存在极高的稳定性,而处于低水平、中等水平和中高水平的省份转移概率均会受到邻近省份的影响;分维度来看,不同排名区间的省份电子商务高质量发展的核心维度和薄弱环节表现出一定的差异性。各省份要根据具体的发展特点提升核心维度并补强薄弱环节,以此提升电子商务高质量发展水平。

The high-quality development index system of e-commerce is constructed from the six dimensions of scale level,economic status,development support,competitiveness,coordinated development and shared development.Measure the high-quality development level of provincial e-commerce from 2015 to 2020 based on the Entropy TOPSIS method.The dynamic evolution characteristics are analyzed by using kernel density estimation and Markov chain method.The results show that the overall high-quality development of e-commerce shows an upward trend,but the development gap continues to expand.From a dynamic perspective,provinces with high level of e-commerce development have high stability,while the transfer probability of provinces with low level,medium level and medium high level will be affected by neighboring provinces.From the perspective of dimensions,there are differences in the core dimensions and weak links of e-commerce high-quality development in provinces with different rankings.All provinces should improve the core dimensions and strengthen the weak links according to the specific development characteristics,so as to improve the high-quality development level of e-commerce.