黄河流域“水——能源——粮食”纽带系统的耦合协调及时空分异

Coupling Relationship and Spatial-Temporal Differentiation of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Yellow River Basin

以2000—2020年黄河流域9个省、自治区为研究对象,在厘清"水—能源—粮食"纽带系统耦合机制基础上,构建"水—能源—粮食"纽带系统的质量评价体系,运用耦合协调度模型和空间相关分析探讨三者耦合协调的时空特征及其空间联系,研究发现,黄河流域"水—能源—粮食"纽带系统的综合评价指数上升趋势明显,并处于中等发展水平阶段,其空间分布与区域资源禀赋具有高度一致性;黄河流域"水—能源—粮食"纽带系统以初级—中级协调为主,呈现出稳定的上升态势,并且具有显著的空间分异性,各省呈现出明显的非同步发展特征,总体上表现为"上游地区>中游地区>下游地区";黄河流域"水—能源—粮食"纽带系统耦合协调度具有典型的"阶段突变"特征。以2010年为分界线,2010年以前黄河流域"水—能源—粮食"纽带系统的空间集聚不稳定,呈现正负分化明显的波动特征;2010年以后黄河流域"水—能源—粮食"纽带系统的空间集聚程度不断增强;黄河流域"水—能源—粮食"纽带系统的耦合协调正在从区域离散向区域集聚发生转变,且表现为"高—高"区域、"低—低"区域明显的两极分化趋势。

Taking 9 provincesin and autonomous the Yellow River Basin in 2000—2020 as the research object,on the basis of clarifying the coupling mechanism of the Water-Energy-Food nexus,this article constructs the evaluation index system of the Water-Energy-Food nexus.The coupling coordination degree model and the spatial correlation analysis are used to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics and spatial relationship.The results show that:The comprehensive evaluation index has an obvious upward trend,and is at a medium development stage.The spatial distribution pattern is consistent with the distribution pattern of water,energy,and food resource endowments in the Yellow River Basin.The Water-Energy-Food nexus is mainly in the primary-intermediate coordination stage,showing a steady upward trend,and has significant spatial divergence.The 9 provinces show obvious characteristics of non-synchronous development,and generally appear as upstream areas>midstream area>downstream area.The nexus in the Yellow River Basin has a typical“stage mutation”characteristic.Taking 2010 as the dividing line,the spatial agglomeration was unstable before 2010,showing obvious fluctuation characteristics of positive and negative differentiation;after 2010,the degree of spatial agglomeration continued to increase.The coupling coordination of the Water-Energy-Food nexus in the Yellow River Basin is changing from regional dispersion to regional agglomeration,which is mainly concentrated in high-high and low-low areas,with a trend of polarization.