青龙矿瓦斯赋存规律及含量预测模型的构建

Construction of gas occurrence law and content prediction model in Qinglong Mine

为了探讨贵州省青龙矿的瓦斯赋存规律,及对矿区未采煤层的瓦斯含量进行预测。以青龙矿16煤层为例,分别从煤层厚度、顶板泥岩厚度、煤层埋深、构造指数等角度探讨各因素对16煤层瓦斯含量的影响。通过灰色关联方法,实现了影响煤层瓦斯含量因子权重分析;通过多元线性回归,建立青龙矿区瓦斯含量的预测模型。结果表明,青龙矿16煤层瓦斯含量与煤层埋深、顶底板泥岩厚度、煤层厚度成正相关性,与构造指数呈负相关性;影响瓦斯含量的主导因素为煤层厚度和煤层埋深,影响因子与瓦斯含量之间的关联大小为煤层厚度>底板埋深≈构造指数>顶板泥岩厚度;发现多元回归预测模型可用于研究区未开采煤层的瓦斯含量的预测,相关系数R2=0.843。

In order to explore the gas occurrence law of Qinglong Mine in Guizhou Province and predict the gas content of the unmined coal seam in the mining area.Taking 16 coal seam of Qinglong Mine as an example,the influence of various factors on gas content of 16 coal seam is discussed from the aspects of coal seam thickness,roof mudstone thickness,coal seam buried depth and structural index.The weight analysis of factors affecting coal seam gas content is realized by grey correlation method.The prediction model of gas content in Qinglong mining area was established by multiple linear regression.The results show that the gas content of 16 coal seam in Qinglong Mine is positively correlated with the depth of coal seam,the thickness of mudstone and coal seam,and negatively correlated with the structural index.The dominant factors affecting gas content are coal seam thickness and coal seam buried depth,and the correlation between influencing factors and gas content is coal seam thickness>floor buried depth≈structural index>roof mudstone thickness;it is found that the multiple regression prediction model can be used to predict the gas content of unexploited coal seams in the study area with the correlation coefficient R2=0.843.