大气污染源排放清单不确定性分析技术研究

Research on uncertainty analysis of emission inventory of air pollution sources

为了保证邯郸市大气污染源排放清单成果的准确性和可靠性,以便更好地为邯郸市空气质量改善提供政策依据,需要对不确定性因素进行全面正确的识别和量化,本文采用半定量不确定性分析方法从活动水平数据、排放因子选择、技术参数选择以及估算方法方面对邯郸市大气污染源排放清单进行不确定性等级划分,从而进行综合不确定性分析。结果表明,非道路移动源、溶剂使用源、扬尘源、生物质燃烧源、餐饮油烟综合不确定性比较高,是未来邯郸市大气污染源排放清单重点关注和持续改善的方向和领域。

In order to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results of the emission inventory of air pollution sources in Handan,and to provide a better policy basis for improving air quality in Handan,it is necessary to identify and quantify these uncertainties comprehensively and correctly.In this paper,semi-quantitative uncertainty analysis method is used to classify the uncertainty level of the emission inventory of air pollution sources in Handan from the aspects of activity level data,emission factor selection,technical parameter selection and estimation method,then the comprehensive uncertainty analysis is carried out.The results show that the synthetic uncertainty of non-road moving source,solvent using source,dust raising source,biomass burning source and cooking fume is high,is the future Handan air pollution source emission inventory focus on and continue to improve the direction and areas.