水土不服的LCOE在国内新能源行业应用场景深度研究

Research on the depth of application scenario of unacceptable levelized cost of energy in domestic new energy industry

为解决市场化交易等因素带来的风光项目电价不确定问题,以及国内外税制差异导致对公式的理解及应用场景不全面问题,本文从LCOE公式解读出发,与IRR应用场景进行对比分析,利用SPSS软件对LCOE与反算最低电价关系检验,得出项目反算最低电价与LCOE(不含税)呈显著线性相关关系,但线性公式不唯一不固定,得出结论一:竞标过程中计算的项目LCOE值不能直接用来作为竞标电价,但可用于成本参考;绘制项目电价与LCOE(含税)变化趋势图,得出LCOE与项目电价呈线性变化。得出结论二:LCOE公式没有电价因素,但受IRR控制,通过压缩成本边界满足收益率要求的项目LCOE又间接受电价高低影响;绘制不同区域LCOE对比图,得出结论三:不含税LCOE和含税LCOE均具有比选功能,LCOE除用于传统方案比选、项目比选外,还可用于不同区域成本比较。

In order to solve the problem of uncertain electricity price of wind power projects and photovoltaic projects caused by market transaction and other factors,as well as the problem of incomplete understanding and application scenario caused by the difference of domestic and foreign tax systems,this paper starts from the interpretation of LCOE formula,making a comparative analysis with the IRR application scenario.This paper uses SPSS software to test the relationship between LCOE and back-calculated lowest electricity price,and finds that the relationship between back-calculated lowest electricity price and LCOE(excluding tax)is significantly linear,though the linear formula is not unique and fixed,comes to the first conclusion:the LCOE value calculated during the bidding process can not be directly used as the bidding price,but can be used as the cost reference.This paper draws a trend chart of the change between the project price and the LCOE(including taxes),and gets the linear change between the LCOE and the project price,comes to the second conclusion:the LCOE formula has no electricity price factor,but is controlled by IRR.Through compressing the cost boundary to meet the demand of the return rate,the LCOE of project is indirectly affected by the price of electricity.This paper draws the contrast chart of LCOE in different regions,and comes to the third conclusion:the LCOE(excluding tax)and the LCOE(including taxes)both have the compare function,and the LCOE can be used to compare the cost of different regions besides the traditional scheme comparison and project comparison.