中国与东盟劳动密集型产业升级的比较及实证研究——产品空间理论的视角

Comparative and Empirical Research on the Upgrading of Labor-intensive Industries in China and ASEAN from the Perspective of Product Space Theory

基于产品空间理论,绘制中国与东盟各国劳动密集型产品空间网络图,展示中国—东盟劳动密集型优势产品空间形态,比较分析了中国与东盟各国劳动密集型产品空间形态特征。中国在劳动密集型产品生产上积累了较为丰富的能力,具有显性比较优势的劳动密集型产品数量最多,更靠近产品空间中心位置,并未因劳动力成本上涨失去在劳动密集型产品上的优势。利用2000—2019年中国—东盟劳动密集型产品贸易数据实证表明,中国—东盟劳动密集型产品升级遵循了既有劳动密集型产品生产能力和要素禀赋的比较优势路径,但产品复杂度并未有效抑制产业失势。后疫情时代,中国—东盟利用在劳动密集型产品生产多年积累的生产能力,提高产品复杂度,在劳动密集型产品方面仍具有较大合作空间。

Based on the theory of product space, this paper draws the spatial network diagram of China-ASEAN labor-intensive products, depicts the spatial network position of the advantageous products among China-ASEAN labor-intensive products, as well as compares and analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of labor-intensive products from China and ASEAN. China’s production capacity accumulated over the years makes it not lose its comparative advantage in the production of labor-intensive products due to the rise of labor costs, with the largest number of products with demonstrative comparative advantage, which is closer to the center of product space. Based on the trade data of China-ASEAN labor-intensive products from 2000 to 2019, the empirical results show that the upgrading of China-ASEAN labor-intensive products follows the path of comparative advantage based on the production capacity and factor endowment of the existing labor-intensive products, but the product complexity does not effectively restrain the industrial decline. In the post-epidemic era, China and ASEAN need to leverage their existing production capacity of labor-intensive products accumulated over the years, to continuously increase the complexity of those products. Both sides still have space to expand bilateral trade.