城市生活垃圾处理PPP项目收益分配与风险分担策略研究——以实物期权法为基础

Study on Income Distribution and Risk Sharing Strategy of Municipal Solid Waste Treatment PPP Project——Based on Real Option Method

收益分配与风险分担策略是城市生活垃圾处理PPP项目顺利开展的关键问题。本文采用实物期权法量化政府双边担保策略提高的项目价值数额,运用风险涵摄法量化PPP模式分担的风险,探寻不同风险因素下政府与社会企业的收益变化规律。研究表明,政府双边担保情况下,实物期权法能够提供政府担保带来的价值增值在政府部门、企业部门之间的分配策略;风险分担方面,垃圾产生量波动对政府所持有的看涨期权价值影响不明显,对社会企业持有的看跌期权价值影响较大;垃圾收费变动对项目价值无影响;无风险利率下降时,政府双边担保策略的施行更有利于社会企业,反之,对政府更有利。

The strategy of income distribution and risk sharing is the key issue for the smooth development of the municipal solid waste treatment PPP project.This paper uses the real option method to quantify the amount of project value raised by the government’s bilateral guarantee strategy,uses the risk containment method to quantify the risks shared by the PPP model,and explores the law of changes in the income of the government and social enterprises under different risk factors.The research shows that in the case of bilateral government guarantees,the real option method can provide the distribution strategy of the value added brought by government guarantees between government departments and enterprise departments;in terms of risk sharing,fluctuations in the amount of garbage generated have little impact on the value of call options held by the government,but have a greater impact on the value of put options held by social enterprises;changes in waste charges have no impact on project value;when the risk-free interest rate falls,the implementation of the government’s bilateral guarantee strategy is more beneficial to social enterprises,on the contrary,it is more beneficial to the government.