碳达峰和碳中和背景下中国产业结构升级对碳排放的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Carbon Emissions in China in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality

为通过产业结构升级实现中国的碳达峰及碳中和,本文使用1998-2017年中国30个省份的数据研究中国整体以及三大经济区域产业结构升级对碳排放的影响、空间溢出效应和影响机制。主要结论如下:(1)从国家整体视角,产业结构升级有助于实现碳减排;(2)从区域视角,东部和中部地区产业结构升级能够显著减少碳排放,西部地区的影响不显著;(3)从空间视角,产业结构升级不仅对本地区碳排放存在负向空间直接效应,对其他区域碳排放也存在负向的空间间接效应;(4)从影响路径视角,中国整体和东部地区能源消耗和技术创新均在产业结构升级影响碳排放的路径中发挥了部分中介作用。中部地区能源消耗在影响路径中发挥了部分中介作用,而技术创新表现为遮掩效应,可能原因是存在技术减排的反弹效应。西部地区能源消耗和技术创新均不是产业结构升级影响碳排放的路径。

To achieve China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality through industrial structure upgrading,this paper uses panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 1998-2017 to study the impact,spatial spillover effects and influence mechanisms of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions in China as a whole and in three major economic regions.The main findings are:(1)At national level,industrial structure upgrading can help achieve carbon emission reduction;(2)From regional perspective,industrial structure upgrading in eastern and central regions can significantly reduce carbon emissions,while the effect are not significant in the western region;(3)For spatial effects,industrial structure upgrading not only has a negative spatial direct effect on carbon emissions in home regions,but also have negative spatial indirect effect in other regions;(4)From the perspective of influence mechanisms,both energy consumption and technological innovation in China as a whole and in the eastern region play a partially mediating role in the pathways of industrial structure upgrading affecting carbon emissions.Energy consumption in the central region plays a partly mediating role in the influence pathways,while technological innovation shows a masking effect,probably due to the rebound effect of technological emission reduction.Neither energy consumption nor technological innovation in the western region is the pathways of industrial structure upgrading affecting carbon emissions.