摘要
由于地区间人口年龄结构存在显著区别,老龄化对不同地区产业结构优化造成的影响也呈现出差异性特征。本文分别从理论模型和实证模型两个角度阐释不同区域老龄化和产业结构优化之间存在的非线性特征和空间溢出效应。通过建立门限面板模型和两区制空间杜宾模型发现,在低老龄化地区,老龄化对区域产业结构优化存在显著促进作用,而在老龄化程度较重的地区,老龄化则阻滞产业结构优化调整。同时劳动力流动对地区产业结构优化调整存在显著的负向溢出效应。结合本文理论和实证模型,提出相应的政策建议。
Due to significant differences in age structures of population among regions,there are variant characteristics of different regions'industrial structure optimization influenced by aging.This paper illustrates the nonlinear characteristics and spatial spillover effects between aging and industrial structure optimization from theoretical and empirical perspectives respectively.Through the establishment of threshold panel model and two-zone spatial Durbin model,it is found that aging has significant positive effects on the industrial structure optimization of regions with low level of aging,while aging has impeded the industrial structure optimization of regions with high level of aging.At the same time,labor mobility has significant negative spillover effects on the optimization and adjustment of regional industrial structure.Based on the theoretic and empirical findings,the corresponding suggestions are put forward.
作者
朴英爱
杨颖
PiaoYing’ai;Yang Ying
出处
《经济问题探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第3期176-190,共15页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
国家社科基金项目“中国‘一带一路’与韩国‘朝鲜半岛新经济地图’‘新北方政策’战略对接”(19BGJ049),项目负责人:朴英爱。
关键词
产业结构优化
门限效应
空间溢出效应
两区制空间面板杜宾模型
Industrial structure optimization
Threshold effects
Spatial epillover effects
Two-regime spatial Durbin model
