PM_(2.5)质量浓度的时间滞后效应与气象因素的关系——以山东省6个沿海城市为例

Relations between the Hysteresis Effect of PM_(2.5) Mass Concentration and Meteorological Factors--Taking Six Coastal Cities in Shandong Province as Example

于2019年5月1日到2020年4月30日,以山东省6个沿海城市(青岛、烟台、日照、潍坊、东营、滨州)为研究对象,依据降水量、空气污染程度将6个城市划分为两类,第Ⅰ类为降水较多空气污染相对较轻的青岛、烟台、日照,第Ⅱ类为降水较少空气污染相对严重的潍坊、东营、滨州;根据动态时空二维模型的原理,利用24090个数据,建立了两类区域的静态时空二维模型、动态时空二维模型;依据模型及通径分析原理,量化分析了PM_(2.5)质量浓度时间滞后效应与5个气象因素(气压、相对湿度、气温、风速、降水量)的关系。结果表明:①第Ⅰ类城市。降水、气温、风速对PM_(2.5)质量浓度的影响,总体趋势是抑制PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高;气压、湿度对PM_(2.5)质量浓度的影响,总体趋势是促进PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高。各气象因素的直接影响——气压、风速、气温、降水均能直接抑制PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高,但各气象因素的抑制强度变化趋势不同;湿度直接促进PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高。各气象因素的间接影响——气压间接促进PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高;湿度、气温、风速、降水均间接抑制PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高。②第Ⅱ类城市。降水、气温、风速对PM_(2.5)质量浓度的影响,总体趋势是抑制PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高;气压、湿度对PM_(2.5)质量浓度的影响,总体趋势是促进PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高。各气象因素的直接影响——气压、风速、气温均能直接抑制PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高;降水直接促进PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高;各气象因素的间接影响——气压间接促进PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高,促进PM_(2.5)质量浓度升高的强度持续稳定;降水、湿度、风速均间接抑制PM_(2.5)质量浓度的升高。

With meteorological data from May 1,2019 to April 30,2020,six coastal cities in Shandong Province(Qingdao,Yantai,Rizhao,Weifang,Dongying and Binzhou)were selected as the research object.The six cities were divided into two categories according to precipitation and air pollution degree.The former is Qingdao,Yantai and Rizhao,which had more precipitation and less air pollution.The latter is Weifang,Dongying and Binzhou with less precipitation and relatively serious air pollution.By the principle of dynamic spatio-temporal two-dimensional model,the static and dynamic spatio-temporal,two-dimensional model of two types of regions were established by using 24090 data.By the model and path analysis principle,the relationship between the hysteresis effect of PM_(2.5)mass concentration and five meteorological factors(air pressure,relative humidity,air temperature,wind speed and precipitation)was quantitatively analyzed.The results show that:(1)for the former cities the influence of precipitation,air temperature and wind speed on PM_(2.5)mass concentration suppress the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration.The overall trend towards the influence of air pressure and humidity on PM_(2.5)mass concentration is that air pressure and humidity promote the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration.The direct influence of meteorological factors——air pressure,wind speed,air temperature and precipitation can directly inhibit the raise of PM_(2.5)mass concentration,but the variation trend towards the inhibition intensity of meteorological factors is different.Humidity directly promotes the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration.The indirect influence on meteorological factor——air pressure indirectly promoted the raise of PM_(2.5)mass concentration;Humidity,air temperature,wind speed and precipitation all indirectly inhibited the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration.(2)For the latter cities,the influence of precipitation,air temperature and wind speed on PM_(2.5)mass concentration suppress the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration.The overall trend towards the influence of air pressure and humidity on PM_(2.5)mass concentration is that air pressure and humidity promote the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration.The direct influence of meteorological factors——air pressure,wind speed and air temperature can directly inhibit the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration;Precipitation directly promoted the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration.Indirect influence of meteorological factors——air pressure indirectly promoted the increase of PM_(2.5)mass concentration,the continuous and stable intensity of PM_(2.5)mass concentration increase;Precipitation,humidity and wind speed all indirectly inhibited the growth of PM_(2.5)mass concentration.