基于土地资源适宜性评价的城镇用地承载力研究

On Urban Land Carrying Capacity Based on Evaluation of Land Resources Suitability

在城镇用地适宜性与城镇用地承载力概念界定的基础上,以南京市为研究区,从自然环境因素和经济区位因素两方面选取九个指标构建城镇用地适宜性评价指标体系,基于GIS空间分析方法和综合评价法,对城镇用地适宜性进行评价,制作城镇用地适宜性空间分布格局,进而评估出城镇用地承载能力。研究结果显示:不适宜区、较不适宜区、临界适宜区、较适宜区和极适宜区面积分别为594.84 km^(2)、518.23 km^(2)、726.06 km^(2)、407.91 km^(2)、1062.79 km^(2),优质承载区(极适宜区和较适宜区)占土地总面积的比重为22.33%,可承载区(极适宜区、较适宜区和临界适宜区)占比为33.35%,2015年南京市现状城镇用地离优质承载区尚有712.34 km^(2)的潜力空间,离可承载区尚有1368.60 km^(2)的潜力空间;在不同的土地利用方式下,南京市城镇用地承载能力在1050.50万人~2196.76万人之间。研究结果可为南京市城镇用地空间优化配置和划定城镇开发边界以及国土空间规划等提供支持。

Based on the definitions of suitability and carrying capacity of urban land,this paper,taking Nanjing as a research area,selected nine indicators from the aspects of natural environment and economic location to establish an evaluation index system for urban land suitability.Based on GIS(Geographic Information System)spatial analysis method and comprehensive evaluation method,this paper evaluated the suitability of urban land,described the spatial distribution pattern of urban land suitability,and then evaluated the carrying capacity of urban land.The research results were shown as follows:the areas of unsuitable areas,less suitable areas,critically suitable areas,more suitable areas and extremely sui­table areas were 594.84 km^(2),518.23 km^(2),726.06 km^(2),407.91 km^(2) and 1062.79 km^(2) respectively;the high-quality bearing areas(extremely suitable and more suitable areas)accounted for 22.33%of the total land areas,and the bearing areas(extremely suitable,more suitable,and critically suitable areas)accounted for 33.35%.For the urban land areas in Nanjing in 2015,there were additional 712.34 km^(2) to become the promising high-quality bearing areas and extra 1,368.60 km^(2) to become the promising bearing areas.Under different land use types,the population carrying capacity of urban land in Nanjing ranged from 10,505,000 to 21,967,600.The research results could provide supports for the spatial optimal alloca­tion of urban land,the demarcation of urban development boundaries,and the territorial spacial planning in Nanjing.