国家应急管理体制变迁的影响因素与路径研究——基于20个案例的清晰集定性比较分析

Research on Influencing Factors and Paths of Changes in National Emergency Management System:A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Clear Sets Based on 20 Cases

各国应急管理体制的变迁无不是与突发事件相联系的,但并非所有的突发事件都导致了体制的变迁。文章基于多源流理论,采用清晰集定性比较分析方法对20个案例展开研究,探讨国家应急管理体制变迁的影响因素和路径。研究发现:社会舆论导向是国家应急管理体制变迁的必要前提;变迁路径存在五条组态分布,可被分为四种类型,即示范压力型、精英推动型、批评—改进型、民意倒逼型。借助定性比较分析方法对国家应急管理体制变迁机理进行探究与思考,能够从条件组合的角度为各国将危机从危险转变为机会提供政策启示,为研究解读体制变迁提供新的学术视角。

Changes in emergency management systems in various countries are the product of emergencies,but not all emergencies have led to system changes.Based on the theory of multiple sources,crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis was used to study 20 cases to explore the factors and paths that influence the changes in the national emergency management system.The study found that public opinion is a necessary prerequisite for changes in the national emergency management system;as for the path of change,there are five configuration distributions,which can be divided into four types,namely,the demonstration pressure type,the elite push type,the criticism-improvement type,and the public opinion pressure type.Using crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis to explore the path of changes in the national emergency management system can provide policy enlightenment for countries to transform crises from dangers to opportunities from the perspective of condition combination,and can also provide a new academic perspective for related research to interpret system changes.