工作不安全感视角下项目管理者安全管理行为演化博弈研究

Evolutionary game research on the safety management behavior of project managers from the perspective of job insecurity

项目管理者的安全管理行为对建筑施工安全有着至关重要的作用,但受到安全事故风险、政府监管和施工人员不安全行为等因素的影响,工作不安全感等心理因素对项目管理者安全管理行为的影响日益显著。针对这一问题,尝试从工作不安全感的角度出发,运用前景理论刻画工作不安全感对项目管理者安全管理行为决策的影响,考虑外部监管的作用,构建施工人员和项目管理者的安全行为演化博弈模型,探讨项目管理者策略选择的演化规律。通过数值模拟发现,存在最优外部监管力度,使博弈双方策略选择处于最优状态;同时验证了4个关键因素对行为演化的影响。

The purpose of this paper is to explore the characteristics of changes in the safety management behavior of project managers from the perspective of job insecurity to ensure that the research is closer to reality.Therefore,the article established an evolutionary game model of safety management behavior of project managers based on job insecurity,and the prospect theory was used to describe the influence of job insecurity on the behavioral strategy choice of project managers.The evolutionary game consists of the project managers and construction workers.The impact of external supervision on the system was also considered.By solving the replication dynamic equation and analyzing the system stability,we found that when the relationship between the perceived value of job insecurity and the cost of safe behaviors of both parties was different,the final evolutionary stability strategy(ESS)would also be different.This paper explored the impact of 5 key factors on the behavior choices of both parties by changing the replication dynamic equations on both sides of the game by setting up the different model inputs.In such a case,with the help of Matlab simulation software,it would be possible to explore the evolutionary game process under the different conditions.The simulation results are as follows:(1)There is an optimal external supervision state,which makes the system in the optimal state.(2)Excessive safety behavior cost of construction personnel can lead to unsafe behavior of construction personnel.When the safety behavior cost is in a certain range,project managers are more likely to have negative management behavior.(3)Improving the perception of accident risk is conducive to improving the behavior of project managers and construction personnel.(4)Appropriately improving the accident risk transfer coefficient and the punishment for unsafe behaviors is beneficial to improve the behavior strategy of project managers and construction personnel and enhance the safety of construction projects.