基于区间集对投影决策的铁路应急预案评估

Railway emergency plan evaluation based on interval set pair projection decision

针对现有铁路应急预案评估方法处理不确定信息的不足和预案决策准确性有待提高的问题,引入集对分析和投影寻踪理论,提出了两者耦合的区间集对投影决策的铁路应急预案评估方法。在确定评估指标的基础上,利用几何平均赋权法综合主观权重和客观权重进行赋权。构建区间集对投影模型,将加权区间评价矩阵通过集对分析的三元联系数表示,将寻找到最优和最劣目标与各预案构成集对。分别计算案例中4个预案的投影值获取预案排序,按照越大越优的原则,评估出最佳应急预案为S_(3)。该方法与投影寻踪和逼近理想解(TOPSIS)方法的对比分析也验证了该方法的可行性和有效性,为应急预案的选择提供了理论依据。

Due to the inadequate processing of uncertain information by evaluation methods of existing railway emergency plans and the need to deal with the problem that the accuracy of the plan decision,this study introduces an evaluation method of railway emergency plans based on set pair analysis and projection pursuit theory.Moreover,based on the identification of assessment indicators,the geometric average empowerment method is adopted to empower its subjective weight and objective weights,to calculate the comprehensive weight.To construct the interval set-to-projection model,this study expresses the measured sample value based upon the interval number.An interval evaluation matrix forms and standardizes in the combination of weights.Three-element connection number of set pair analysis expresses weighted interval evaluation matrix.To obtain idealized objectives,the optimal goal,as well as the worst goal,are found out.Constructing set pairs based on the sample and optimal target for the calculation of projection values.Projection values are integrated to analyze the relative advantages and disadvantages of the research object.The calculation results of projection values show the ranking of the 4 plans:S_(3)>S_(4)>S_(1)>S_(2).According to the principle that the greater the better,it will evaluate the best contingency plans,that is S_(3).Besides,this method is compared with the projection pursuit and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)method and information axiom method for the instance data source.The results are consistent with the information axiom method,which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.Moreover,this method reflects the advantages of this method in dealing with uncertain information.Furthermore,it provides a theoretical basis for the selection of emergency plans.