晋冀地区2000—2017年慢性病信息系统风险预警能力演变趋势与比较分析

The evolution trend and comparative analysis of risk pre-warning capability of chronic disease information system in Shanxi and Hebei Provinces from 2000 to 2017

目的分析晋冀地区慢性病信息系统风险预警能力的变迁,为慢性病风险预警实践提供依据。方法系统全面地收集2000—2017年晋冀两地区公开发布的有关慢性病风险预警的信息,分析相关字段并量化风险预警程度,运用Spearman等级相关及线性回归分析风险预警程度与各个领域效果指标适宜程度评分间的关系。结果山西的风险预警程度从2000年的0.00%波动上升至2012年的0.31%,至2017年降至0.28%,河北同期从0%波动上升至0.14%。山西慢性病信息系统风险预警程度与各个领域效果指标适宜程度评分呈正相关关系(r=0.719,P<0.001),而河北的呈负相关关系(r=-0.888,P<0.001),对各个领域效果指标适宜程度评分的解释程度分别为64.2%(P<0.001)和55.3%(P<0.001)。结论晋冀慢性病信息系统风险预警功能发挥程度较低,山西的风险预警体现出对各个领域效果指标适宜程度评分的支撑作用,而河北的风险预警对各个领域效果指标适宜程度评分未发挥积极作用。

Objective To analyze the changes in risk pre-warning capability of chronic disease information system in Shanxi Provinceand Hebei Province, so as to provide basis for the practice of risk pre-warning of chronic diseases.Methods We systematically collected information about chronic disease risk pre-warning released publicly in Shanxi and Hebei Provinces during 2000—2017, analyzed relevant fields, quantified the risk pre-warning degree, and analyzed the relationship between risk pre-warning degree and appropriate rating of various indicators using Spearman?s rank correlation and linear regression.Results The pre-riskwarning capabilityin Shanxi Province increased ina fluctuating way from 0.00% in 2000 to 0.31% in 2012, and then decreased to 0.28% in 2017, whilethatinHebei Province increasedfrom 0% to 0.14% during the same period. There was a significant positive correlation between the risk pre-warning degree of Shanxi chronic disease information system and the appropriate rating of various indicators in various fields(r=0.719, P<0.001), and a negative correlation was found in Hebei Province(r=-0.888, P<0.001). The degrees of interpretation of the appropriate rating of various indicators in each field were 64.2%(P<0.001) and 55.3%(P<0.001), respectively. Conclusions The role of risk pre-warning in Shanxi and Hebei chronic disease information systemsis relatively low, and the risk pre-warning in Shanxi Province reflects the supporting role in the appropriate rating of various indicators in various fields, while that in Hebei Province does not play a positive role.