价格革命:价格史中的“巨浪”与“大缓和”

’Great Waves’ in Price History and the ’Great Easing’

人口逆转、货币超发与通货膨胀是当下全球宏观经济的三个特征事实,三者的逻辑关系是经济学的长青话题。由史观之,货币是重要的,但并非唯一重要的,更不大可能是通胀的原动力。人口与通胀的关系更值得关注。20世纪80年代以来的全球通货膨胀的下行和收敛与全球化、人口红利和货币政策密切相关,但2008年金融危机以来,它们影响通胀的方向都在不同程度上出现逆转。

Population reversal, currency over-issuance and inflation are the three characteristic facts of the current global macro economy, and the logical relationship between the three is an evergreen topic of economics. Historically, money is important, but not the only one, and it is less likely to be the driving force behind inflation. The relationship between population and inflation is more noteworthy. The downward and convergence of global inflation since the 1980 s has been closely related to globalization, demographic dividends and monetary policy, but since the 2008 financial crisis, the direction in which they have affected inflation has reversed to varying degrees.