基于FCM-等值风速模型的风功率日前预测

Research on Day-ahead Forecast of Wind Power Based on FCM-Equivalent Wind Speed Model

由于风速的随机性、间歇性,以及风电场内各机组风速、功率的分散性,给风功率预测带来了较大难度。在计算风速线性相关的权值基础上,提出了改进模糊C均值聚类算法(fuzzy c-means,FCM)的风速模型,建立了风电场等值风速与改进FCM风速的关系函数。以某风电场实测数据进行验证,结果表明:所提风电功率预测方法算法简单;该方法预测精度提高了71.35%。在该风电场不同日周期下,验证了所提预测方法的有效性和普适性。

Due to existence of the randomness and intermittence of wind speed and the dispersion of wind speed and power of each unit,it is difficult to predict the wind power in a wind farm.On the basis of calculating the weights of the linear correlation of wind speed,a wind speed model based on the improved FCM(fuzzy c-means clustering)clustering algorithm is proposed in this paper,and the relationship function between the equivalent wind speed of the wind farm and the wind speed of the improved FCM is established.The measured data of a certain wind farm shows that the proposed method for wind power prediction is simple in algorithm and the prediction accuracy improved by 71.35%,and the validity and universality of the prediction method are verified under different daily cycles of the wind farm.