社河控制单元水环境承载力情景方案设计研究

Study on Scenario Scheme Design of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in Shehe River Control Unit

以抚顺县社河控制单元为例,基于水环境-水资源-水生态-社会经济4个子系统构建指标体系及水环境承载力评估预警动态模型,并设计常规发展型、经济改善型、水环境改善型、水资源改善型、综合改善型5种情景方案,预测2019—2025年不同发展方案下的水环境承载力。结果表明,社河控制单元水环境承载力均呈上升趋势,各方法调节效果为综合改善型(0.8117)>水资源改善型(0.7658)>经济改善型(0.7117)>水环境改善型(0.6824)>常规发展型(0.6725)。常规发展型情景方案2025年达到临界超载—蓝色预警状态,说明按照现有状态发展,社河控制单元不能够承载目前的人口、经济规模;综合改善型情景方案2025年达到绿色不超载状态,说明在此方案下,社河的社会经济、水环境、水资源、水生态能协调发展。

Taking the Shehe River Control Unit in Fushun County as an example,based on the four subsystems of water environment-water resources-water ecology-social economy to construct an indicator system and a water environment carrying capacity evaluation and early warning dynamic model,and design five scenarios of conventional development,economic improvement,water environment improvement,water resource improvement and comprehensive improvement,to predict the water environment carrying capacity under different development plans from 2019 to 2025.The results showed that the water environment carrying capacity of the Shehe control unit was on the rise,and the adjustment effect of each method was comprehensive improvement type(0.8117)>water resource improvement type(0.7658)>economic improvement type(0.7117)>water environment improvement type(0.6824)>conventional development type(0.6725).The conventional development scenario plan will reach the critical overload-blue warning state in 2025,indicating that according to the current state of development,the Shehe River control unit cannot carry the current population and economic scale;the comprehensive improvement scenario plan will reach a green non-overload state in 2025,indicating that under this plan,the social economy,water environment,water resources,and water ecology of Shehe River can develop in a coordinated manner.