计及地震灾害不确定性的电气互联系统韧性评估与提升方法

The Assessment and Improvement Method of Electricity-gas System Resilience Considering Earthquake Disaster Uncertainty

地震灾害可能造成电气互联系统基础设施的严重损坏,导致停电停气事故。为评估和提升地震灾害下电气互联系统的能源供应能力,该文首先构建计及地震空间分布和震级不确定性的电气互联系统元件失效概率模型;其次,提出基于两阶段气网优化潮流模型的电气互联系统最优负荷削减算法,提升收敛性和计算效率,在此基础上,建立地震灾害下电气互联系统韧性评估及提升方法;最后,基于IEEE RTS 79电网和14节点气网,搭建电气互联测试系统,并利用此系统验证所提韧性评估及提升方法。结果表明,所提出的电气互联系统韧性评估及提升方法能够协助规划人员评判系统面向地震灾害的韧性水平,并能结合经济性选择最佳韧性提升方案。

Earthquake disaster may cause serious damage to the infrastructure of electricity-gas systems,leading to power outage and gas outage accidents.To assess and improve the energy supply capacity of electricity-gas system under earthquake disaster,this paper first constructed the failure probability model of electricity-gas system components considering the uncertainty of earthquake spatial distribution and magnitude.Then,an optimal load shedding algorithm of electricity-gas system based on two-stage gas network optimization power flow model was proposed,which improves the convergence and calculation efficiency.On this basis,the resilience assessment and improvement method of electricity-gas system under earthquake was established.Finally,an electricity-gas test system was built on the basis of IEEE RTS 79 power grid and 14-node gas network,which is used to verify the proposed method.The results illustrate that the resilience assessment and improvement method of electricity-gas system proposed in this paper can help panners to judge the resilience level of the system under earthquake disaster,and can choose the best resilience promotion scheme in combination with economy.