英国脱欧对欧盟服务贸易竞争力的影响分析

The Influence of Brexit on the Competitiveness of the EU’s Service Trade

文章深入剖析了英国脱欧对欧盟服务贸易竞争力的四种影响机制并对可能产生的结果进行了分析;接着,定量分析了英国脱欧对欧盟服务贸易竞争力的直接负面影响,并选取世界银行WDI数据库1999~2017年的数据,采用VAR脉冲响应函数法,预判英国脱欧给欧盟服务贸易竞争力带来的间接负面影响。研究发现,不考虑其他因素的介入,尽管定量分析的结果是负面的,但在四种机制的综合作用下,英国脱欧对欧盟的服务贸易竞争力逐步表现为积极、正向的影响。研究结论为欧盟全面认识英国脱欧的经济后果并采取相应措施提升其服务贸易竞争力提供了理论参考和经验证据,为中国提前预判,做好应对提供了政策启示。

This paper deeply explores four kinds of influencing mechanisms of Brexit on the competitiveness of the EU’s service trade and analyzes the possible results.After that,the paper analyzes the direct negative influence of Brexit on the competitiveness of the EU’s service trade quantitatively,and predicts the indirect negative influence of Brexit on the competitiveness of the EU’s service trade by using VAR impulse response function method based on the data of WDI database of the World Bank from 1999 to 2017.The research shows that without considering the intervention of other factors,Brexit exerts an active and positive influence on the competitiveness of the EU’s service trade step by step under the combined effect of the four mechanisms in spite of the negative result of quantitative analysis.The research conclusions provide theoretical reference and empirical evidence for the EU to fully understand the economic consequences of Brexit and take corresponding measures to enhance its competitiveness of service trade,and provide policy enlightenment for China to make prediction and respond well.