进口关税存在产业保护效应吗——基于1998~2017年中国工业行业面板数据的实证研究

Do Import Tariffs have Industrial Protection Effect:An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of China’s Industrial Sectors From 1998 to 2017

文章基于1998~2017年中国进口关税和行业相匹配的面板数据,从不同时间维度实证分析最终品和中间品关税对生产者的影响及其行业异质性,以考察关税是否存在产业保护效应。结论表明:在短期,最终品关税存在一定的产业保护作用,而中间品关税任何时候都对行业利润具有负效应。关税效应存在明显的行业异质性,在消费品行业,关税完全不具有保护效应;在农业相关行业,降低中间品关税会大幅提升行业利润;在高技术行业,短期内降低最终品关税能通过技术外溢效应促进该行业发展,其他行业的利润都会随着中间品关税的下降而增加。机制分析表明关税会通过"逆价格优势"效应和"逆成本优势"效应最终影响行业利润和产业发展。

Based on the panel data matching China’s import tariffs and industries from 1998 to 2017,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the tariffs of final and intermediate products on the producers and the industry heterogeneity from different time dimensions,so as to investigate whether the tariffs have industrial protection effect.The research results indicate that the tariffs of final products have a certain industrial protection effect in the short term,and the tariffs of intermediate products have a negative effect on the industry profits at any time.Tariff effect has significant industry heterogeneity.In the consumer goods industry,the tariffs have no protection effect at all.In the agriculture-related industries,reducing the tariffs of intermediate products will boost the industry profits.In the high-tech industries,reducing the tariffs of final products can promote the development of the industry through technology spillover effect in the short term,and the profits of other industries will increase with the decrease of the tariffs of intermediate products.The mechanism analysis shows that the tariffs will eventually affect the profits and development of the industry through the effects of“inverse price advantage”and“inverse cost advantage”.