多元一体:中东地区的弱链式联盟探析

Pluralistic Integration:On“Weak-link Entente”in the Middle East

传统的联盟研究多关注“同舟共济”型正式强联盟,忽视了“同床异梦”型非正式弱联盟。作者提出“弱链式联盟”的概念,是指主权国家或政治实体在非正式安全合作协议之上,通过议题联系将潜在的安全合作伙伴整合成复合多元的军事共同体,针对共同敌人建立松散的“主导国-代理人-次级代理人”链状安全合作结构。弱链式联盟具有安全合作的非正式性、“大联盟”与“小联盟”的联动性、双边与多边的复合性以及合作与斗争的二重性等特征。通过考察美国发起的“中东战略联盟”、俄罗斯主导的叙利亚问题“协调联盟”、土耳其组建的“亲穆斯林兄弟会联盟”、伊朗引领的“什叶派抵抗联盟”、沙特阿拉伯建立的“保守派联盟”和以色列推动的“温和联盟”六组中东地区弱链式联盟案例,作者发现:多极格局、多元身份与多重利益是弱链式联盟的生成条件;威胁塑造、宗教动员和分歧管控是弱链式联盟的管理手段;金字塔形、轴辐形和蜂窝形是弱链式联盟的主要类型。弱链式联盟对内合而治之,对外分而治之,将显性的联盟合作与隐性的秩序重构结合起来,形成了多元一体的次级体系。

Traditional alliance researches focus on formal,institutional and monolithic alliance,but has ignored informal and loose coalition and alignment. In particular,scholarly researches on formal alliance fail to explain the dynamic coalition paradigm in the Middle East. This paper puts forward a concept of “weak-link entente”,highlighting that sovereign states and other political entities aim to integrate potential security partners into a complex military community through issue linkage on the basis of informal security agreements, forming a chain of “leaders, agents and sub-agents”. The paper chooses six cases of “weak-link ententes”in the Middle East,i.e. the “Middle East Strategic Alliance” by the US,the “Troika Entente” on Syrian issue by Russia,the “Pro-Muslim Brotherhood Nexus” by Turkey,the “Shia Axis of Resistance” led by Iran,the “Conservative Alignment” initiated by Saudi Arabia,and the “Coalition of Moderation” initiated by Israel. The empirical research discloses that the dynamics of the “weak-link coalition” are multipolarity,various identities and diverse interests.They are consolidated by threat construction, religious mobilization and dispute management. “Weak-link coalition ” takes three forms of “pyramid”, “hub-spoke ” and“honeycomb”. These coalitions combine vertical bilateral coalitions with the multilateral network of coalitions. They not only adopt an “offensive”strategy to divide the hostile camps,but also seek a defensive strategy to consolidate their own camp. “Weak-link coalition” aims to combine the explicit coalition cooperation with the implicit order reconstruction,forging complex and pluralistic sub-region systems in the Middle East.