美国压力与盟国的对华经贸政策

How US Allies Make Decisions on Economic Relations with China Under US Pressure

在强化对华战略竞争的大背景下,美国会以各种手段阻挠其他国家尤其是美国盟国发展对华经贸关系。随之而来的一个问题是美国压力下美国盟国如何在对华经贸关系上做出选择。作者认为,除了美国的压力外,至少有四个因素会影响美国盟国在对华经贸关系上的选择:一是安全考虑,即对华经贸合作是否会带来严重的与不可控的安全风险;二是经济利益考虑,即对华合作能否产生可观的经济收益,或中国公司产品的性价比优于其他选项;三是国内政治因素,即一国国内尤其是政府(包括议会)中是否存在积极支持或反对对华合作的力量,执政者是否会从对华合作中获得政治收益或付出政治代价;四是与中国的双边关系状况,双边关系好则合作的偏好就强,反之则弱。研究表明,美国的压力并不能直接转化成美国盟国的决定,而是要同这四个因素相互作用,其结果可能是强化美国压力,盟国接受美国的要求;也可能是弱化美国压力,盟国拒绝美国的要求。从作用机理看,盟国的安全、经济和政治考虑是自变量,对华关系是干预变量,盟国在对华经贸问题上的决策是因变量。这些发现有助于在学理上更准确把握美国盟国在涉华经贸关系上的行为逻辑,更好地理解中美战略竞争的复杂性和国际政治经济格局的深刻变化,也能够为在实践中处理好中美竞争中的第三方因素提供有益的启示。

In pursuing strategic competition with China,the United States endeavors to obstruct other countries,particularly its allies,from fostering economic ties with China.So the question it poses is how allies make decisions under US pressure.The paper argues that in addition to US pressure,there exist at least four factors affecting allies’decisions on economic relations with China.The first is security consideration,namely whether economic relations with China would bring about serious and uncontrollable security risks.The second is economic consideration,namely whether economic relations with China would generate considerable economic benefits,or whether Chinese companies can provide cost-effective products.The third is domestic politics,namely whether there exist within the government forces for or against economic cooperation with China,or whether the ruling party will benefit or suffer from it.The fourth is the state of bilateral relations with China.While a positive relationship enhances preference for cooperation,a sour relationship only weakens it.As the study demonstrates,the US pressure does not directly translate into allies’decision.Instead,it interacts with the above four factors and leads to two different outcomes:the allies accept US demand or reject it.In this mechanism of action,allies,security,economic and political considerations are independent variables,their relations with China is an intervening variable,and their decision on economic ties with China is the dependent variable.The above findings help shed light on the rationale behind US allies’choices and contribute to the understanding of the complexity of Sino-US strategic competition as well as the profound changes in international political and economic landscape,while providing clues to how China can better deal with the third parties in the race with the US.