中国广告业景气指数构建与波动分析

Construction and fluctuation Analysis of Chinese Advertising Industrypros Perity Index

本文基于景气指数理论框架,从宏观经济、消费市场、技术与创新、广告市场规模、广告人才规模五个维度构建中国广告业景气指数指标体系,对2000—2019年中国广告业景气指数的长期趋势和波动周期进行分析。研究结果显示:第一,中国广告业发展总体上呈现景气状态,但广告业景气指数增速放缓;第二,先行指数和一致指数呈现出逐年稳步增长的态势,而滞后指数呈现先快速增长再趋于小幅下降的态势;第三,中国广告业景气指数呈现“波峰—波谷”交替循环的周期性变动特征。这对中国广告业未来的高质量发展有一定预警作用。

Based on the theoretical framework of business climate index,this paper constructs the index system of Chinese advertising business climate index from five dimensions of macro economy,consumer market,technology and innovation,advertising market scale and advertising talent scale,and analyzes the long-term trend and fluctuation cycle of Chinese advertising business climate index from 2000 to 2019.The results show that:First,the development of advertising industry in China is generally prosperous,but the growth of advertising business index is slowing down.Second,the leading index and the consistent index show a trend of steady growth year by year,while the lagging index shows a trend of rapid growth and then a slight decline.Third,China s advertising industry climate index shows the cyclical characteristics of“peak-trough”alternating cycle.It has a certain warning effect on the high-quality development of Chinese advertising industry in the future.