病虫害统防统治服务的产出效应与风险效应研究——基于江苏省水稻种植户的实证分析

The Output Effect and Risk Effect of Professional Pest and Disease Control Service——An Empirical Study on Paddy Rice Production in Jiangsu Province

病虫害统防统治能够提高农户应对突发性病虫害的防治能力,是防范生产风险、保障我国粮食安全的重要手段。本文基于江苏省427户水稻种植农户的实地调研数据,采用内生转换模型分析农户采用统防统治服务的影响因素,在此基础上进一步评估统防统治服务的产出效应和风险效应。研究表明,临近地块农户的统防统治采用行为能激励农户选择统防防治,存在显著的协同效应。户主教育水平、家庭女性劳动力占比、资本投入等因素也显著影响农户对统防统治的采用。与自防自治农户相比,统防统治服务能显著提高水稻的平均单产水平,降低单产分布的方差,促使单产分布向右侧长尾延伸,从而在整体上降低了我国水稻生产的波动,起到了增产和稳产的双重效果。

The professional pest and disease control service(PPDCS) can improve the ability of farmers to deal with sudden outbreaks of pests and diseases in agricultural production, and is an essential means to prevent production risk and ensure China’s food security. Based on the field survey data of 427 rice farmers in Jiangsu, this paper uses an Endogenous Switching Regression(ESR) model to analyze the influencing factors of farmers’ adoption of the PPDCS and to assess the output effect and risk effect of the PPDCS. Our results show that the adoption of PPDCS in neighboring plots can motivate farmers to choose the PPDCS. The education of the household head, the proportion of female labor force in the household, and capital inputs significantly influence the adoption of the PPDCS. Compared with pest and disease control by individual farmers, the PPDCS can improve the average yield of rice, reduce the variance of rice yield, and push yield distribution to the right tail. Therefore, the PPDCS can reduce the fluctuation of rice production and can not only increase the output of rice production but also stabilize rice yield.