水资源稀缺性、灌溉技术采用与节水效应

Water Scarcity, Adoption of Irrigation Technologies and Water Conservation

水资源及其有效利用,关系到粮食安全和农业可持续发展。本文基于粮食主产区农户调查数据,构建反事实分析框架考察灌溉技术采用的节水效应,在此基础上,从水资源稀缺性视角检验节水效应的异质性,并进一步对灌溉水回弹效应展开讨论。结果表明:水资源短缺、技术认知充分、家庭资本充裕以及参与合作社将提高农户灌溉技术采用的概率;从节水效应来看,高效灌溉技术可实现单位面积粮食生产节水22%~62%,但是灌溉面积扩张与种植结构变动会导致灌溉水的回弹效应,若不加以限制,节水效应将被新增用水完全抵消;此外,不同水资源禀赋水平下,灌溉技术采用对粮食生产用水的影响存在明显异质性,在水资源短缺尚未严重制约农业发展的阶段,预先推广高效灌溉技术的节水效果更优。据此,本文从政府、地区和农户3个层面提出粮食生产节水利用的对策和政策建议。

Water resources and their effective utilization are related to food security and sustainable agricultural development. Based on the survey data of farmers in the main grain-producing area, build a counterfactual analysis framework to analyze water conservation of irrigation technology. On this basis, test heterogeneity of water-saving effect from the perspective of water scarcity and discuss rebound effect. The results show that: water shortage, technical awareness, family capital, and cooperatives will increase the probability of irrigation technology adoption;High-efficiency irrigation technology can achieve 22%~62% of water conservation per unit area of the grain. However, the expansion of the irrigation area and changes in the planting structure will cause a rebound effect. If not restricted, the water-saving effect will be completely offset by the newly added water;In addition, under different water resource endowment levels, the effect of irrigation technology on water consumption is different. In the stage when water shortages have not seriously restricted agricultural development, it is better to promote high-efficiency irrigation technology in advance to save water. Therefore, propose the policy implications about water-saving and utilization of grain production from the three levels of government, region, and farmers.