政策性农业保险能否缓解贫困脆弱性——基于典型村庄调研数据的分析

Could Policy-oriented Agricultural Insurance Alleviate Poverty Vulnerability?——Analysis Based on Survey Data of Typical Villages

中国的扶贫攻坚战略已步入成果巩固阶段,贫困不再仅是物质贫困,还延伸至风险及面临风险时的脆弱性。农业风险是中国农村因灾致贫的根源之一,若政策性农业保险能有效降低农业风险所致损失,就有望降低贫困脆弱性。本文基于典型村庄调研数据,对样本农户的贫困脆弱性进行测度,结果显示非建档立卡农户仍具有贫困脆弱性,存在返贫的可能,同时"随机性-暂时性"贫困农户占比较大;农业风险冲击下,政策性农业保险通过提高农户的农业风险保障水平,对降低其贫困脆弱性产生积极影响;区分建档立卡农户与非建档立卡农户后可见,保费补贴对建档立卡农户缓解贫困脆弱性具有更大的边际效用。研究结果表明,以稳定农户农业收入,转移和分散农业风险为目的的政策性农业保险,对巩固脱贫成果、缓解贫困脆弱性及防范返贫具有重要作用。

China’s strategy for poverty alleviation has begun to enter the stage of consolidating achievement. Poverty is not only material poverty but also risk and vulnerability to risk. Agricultural risk is one cause of poverty in Chinese countries, so it is expected to reduce poverty vulnerability if policy-oriented agricultural insurance can reduce losses caused by agricultural risks efficiently. Using the typical villages survey data of the National Social Science project, which the author hosts, this paper measures the poverty vulnerability of the sample. The results show as follows. Firstly, non-filed farmers still have poverty vulnerability and would return to poverty probably, moreover, random and temporary poor farmers account for a large proportion. Secondly, policy-oriented agricultural insurance has a positive impact on reducing farmers’ poverty vulnerability by increasing their protection levels of agriculture. Thirdly, by distinguishing between filed farmers and non-filed farmers, it is obvious that premium subsidies of policy-oriented agricultural insurance have marginal utility for filed farmers to alleviate poverty vulnerability. These conclusions indicate that policy-oriented agricultural insurance, which aims at stabilizing farmers’ agricultural income, transferring and dispersing agricultural risks, plays an important role in consolidating the outcome of poverty alleviation, alleviating poverty vulnerability, and preventing poverty to return.