财政规则能促进财政平衡吗?--基于欧盟成员国数据的经验分析

Can Fiscal Rules Promote Fiscal Balance?An Empirical Analysis Based on Data from EU Member States

完善财政规则治理、实现财政可持续是现代财政制度的重要内容。文章以欧盟委员会财政规则数据集(1995~2015年)构建全口径财政规则强度指数,运用动态面板回归模型实证研究欧盟成员国数值型财政规则对财政平衡的影响。研究发现:财政规则能改善财政平衡,尤其对高赤字政府更加有效。从财政规则的不同特征和类型来看,违规制裁的作用以及预算平衡规则效果最突出。从不同国家结构看,全国性财政规则和中央财政规则在联邦制和单一制国家中均有效,而地方财政规则只在单一制国家中发挥了作用。进一步研究发现,纵向财政失衡削弱了财政规则,对财政平衡造成损害。文章的研究对建立适合我国国情的数值型财政规则,尤其是改进地方政府债务限额管理,引导地方政府理性举债和建立负责任的地方财政体系具有重要意义。

It is an important component of modern financial system to improve the governance of financial rules and realize financial sustainability.Based on the European Commission’s fiscal rule data set(1995-2015),this paper constructs a full caliber fiscal rule intensity index,and uses the dynamic panel regression model to empirically study the impact of numerical fiscal rules on fiscal balance in EU member states.This paper finds that fiscal rules can improve fiscal balance,especially for high deficit governments.From the perspective of different characteristics and types of financial rules,the effect of illegal sanctions and budget balance financial rules is the most prominent.From the perspective of different national structures,national fiscal rules and central fiscal rules are effective in both federal and unitary countries,while local fiscal rules only play a role in unitary countries.In addition,it reveals that vertical fiscal imbalance weakens fiscal rules and damages fiscal balance.The research of this paper is of great significance to the establishment of numerical financial rules suitable for China’s national conditions,especially to the improvement of the management of local government debt limit and the guidance of local governments in borrowing rationally and finally establishing a responsible local financial system.