突发公共卫生事件的应急管理研究--基于中央和地方政策的比较分析

Research on Emergency Management of Public Health Emergencies:A Comparative Analysis Based on Central and Local Government Policies

新冠肺炎疫情为健全防范化解重大风险的体制机制、推进我国应急管理体系现代化提供了重要契机。文章通过社会网络分析法考察政策主体联动特征,基于TF-IDF算法和LDA主题模型分析中央和地方政策目标,根据Skip-gram算法和Word2vec模型计算政策工具的语义相似度。研究发现,地方政府属地管理刚性过强会引发决策时机滞后、风险分担机制不完善、应对机制弹性空间有限、创新能力不足等问题。从行为逻辑来看,激励制度的不完善内生其"避责"动机,进而产生"程序履行"和"层层加码"两种风险规避方式,导致上述系列问题。文章认为,应对突发公共卫生事件,亟须提高地方政府的应急管理能力,关键在于:从风险应对转向风险预防,建立防控为先的多元责任体系;从下限管理转向上限管理,形成有据可依的快速决策支持机制;从常规风险转向非常规风险,构建常态化的应急联动机制;从稳定情景转向极端情景,推动专项预案和打包型政策创新。

The COVID-19 epidemic provides an important opportunity for improving the mechanism of controlling significant risks and modernizing China’s system and capacity for emergency management.In this paper,the linkage characteristic of policymakers is analyzed based on the social network analysis method,the central and local policy objectives are analyzed based on TF-IDF algorithm and the LDA theme model,and the semantic similarities of policy tools are calculated based on Skip-gram algorithm and the Word2 vec model.We find that local territorial management is too rigid to cause some problems,such as lagging decision-making opportunity,insufficient risk sharing mechanism,insufficient flexible space of the coping mechanism and insufficient innovation ability.From the perspective of behavioral logic,avoiding responsibility is the motivation of local governments,which can be attributed to the imperfection of the incentive system.Under the motivation,there will be two ways of risk avoidance,namely,“procedure execution”and“top-down amplification”,which causes the above-mentioned problems.Therefore,the key is to improve the emergency management ability of local governments,to shift from risk response to risk prevention,and to establish a multi-responsibility system;to shift from lower limit management to upper limit management,and to form a support mechanism for rapid decision-making;to shift from the conventional risk to the unconventional risk,and to build a normalized emergency linkage mechanism;to shift from a stable scenario to an extreme scenario,and to promote special plans and packaging policy innovation.