全球价值链视角下中欧贸易关系的演进特征及其启示

The Evolution Characteristics and Enlightenment of China-EU Trade Relations from the Perspective of Global Value Chains

随着全球价值链(GVC)分工体系日益完善,中国与欧盟深度参与GVC分工并互为重要的贸易伙伴。面对新冠肺炎疫情的全球性冲击以及气候危机,中欧深化合作具有迫切需求,而中欧贸易关系的演进特征需要在GVC分工体系下进行回顾。文章在总贸易核算框架与亚洲开发银行跨区域投入产出表的基础上,结合社会网络分析、抗毁性分析等方法,着重分析了2007~2019年间中欧增加值贸易关系的演进特征。研究发现:中欧之间的增加值贸易规模不断增长,在GVC分工体系中的相互依赖性明显;中欧在传统贸易网络中的联系最为紧密,但在复杂GVC网络中主要通过美国作为中介相联系;在传统贸易网络中,中德保持合作并坚持贸易自由化能有效降低GVC分工中的"断链"风险,但在复杂GVC网络中的作用并不明显。文章提出了在后疫情时代深化中欧贸易关系以及通过GVC分工构建中欧数字合作伙伴、绿色伙伴等启示。

With the improvement of the global value chain(GVC),China and the EU have been deeply participated in GVC and become mutually important trading partners.Faced with the global impact of COVID-19 and the climate crisis,there is an urgent need for China and the EU to deepen cooperation.Therefore,the evolution characteristics of China-EU trade relations should be reviewed under the global value chain(GVC)division system.Based on the gross trade accounting method and data from ADB-MRIO,this paper focuses on analyzing the evolution characteristics of China-EU value-added trade relations from 2007 to 2019 combined with an analysis of social networks and invulnerability.The results are that the scale of value-added trade between China and the EU is growing,and the interdependence in GVC is obvious.China and the EU are most closely connected in the traditional trade network,but are connected through the US in the complex GVC trade network.In the traditional trade network,China and Germany should maintain cooperation and adhere to trade liberalization,which can effectively reduce the risk of“broken chain”in GVC,but its effect in the complex GVC trade network is not obvious.This paper puts forward some enlightenments of deepening China-EU trade relations in the post-COVID era and promoting the digital cooperative and green partnership between China and the EU.