新型农业经营主体生产性消费金融风险识别——基于文本挖掘及问卷调查研究

Identification of New Agricultural Business Entities’s Financial Risks in Productive Consumption——Based on Text Mining and Questionnaire Research

本文首先从中国知网CSSCI数据库中挖掘期刊论文提取关于"新型农业经营主体、金融、风险"文本先验信息,并在此基础上设计问卷,调查、研究新型农业经营主体生产性消费金融风险。接着基于2020年全国新型农业经营主体的调查数据,运用二元选择模型识别其生产性消费金融风险的影响因素。研究结果显示:不同性别、资金来源的农户其风险具有显著性差异;较高学历水平、较高自有资产占比、完善农业信贷服务政策、购买自然灾害保险、购买病虫害损失保险有利于其按时还款;偿债压力提高、多种经营方式、市场价格波动、生产管理风险加大了违约概率。为了检验风险识别因素有效性,本文进一步使用TSVM模型对Probit模型识别的影响因素进行后验性检验。结果显示,上述11种影响因素可在很大程度上影响新型农业经营主体生产性消费金融风险形成,并由此提出一系列政策建议。

This paper first extracts a priori information on“New agricultural Business entities,Finance,and Risk”from the CSSCI database of China Knowledge Base.Then,on the basis of this prior information,we designed a questionnaire to investigate and research the risks of productive consumption finance of new agricultural management subjects.Next,based on the survey data of New agricultural Business entities nationwide in 2020,a binary choice model is applied to identify the influencing factors of their productive consumer finance risks.The results of the research show that:there exist significant differences in the risks of farmers by gender and source of capital;higher education level,higher percentage of own assets,improved agricultural credit service policy,purchase of natural disaster insurance,purchase of pest damage insurance are conducive to their timely repayment;higher debt service pressure,multiple operating methods,market price fluctuations,and production management risks increase the probability of default.To better assess its risk,in this paper,TSVM model is used to have post errioir examination on the influence factors of identifying Probit model.Assessment results show that the above 11 influencing factors can largely affect the formation of productive consumer finance risks in New agricultural Business entities,and a series of policy recommendations are made accordingly.