景区夜游密集人群踩踏事件情景下脆弱性分析

Vulnerability analysis of dense crowd stampede incident at night tour in scenic spots

为深入分析城市景区夜游密集人群易发生踩踏事件的脆弱性成因问题,运用人—环境耦合系统全面分析人群脆弱性模型三因子:暴露性、敏感性和适应性。依据现行标准规范与调查问卷筛选脆弱性指标,在博弈思想组合主客观权重的基础上,构建组合赋权-云模型的脆弱性综合评价模型。以大雁塔休闲旅游景区为实例,运用云算法得到各层指标的评价云图,与标准云图比较得出最终的评价结果。结果表明:实例中4个地点的脆弱性均处在“中度”与“低度”区域,其中中央喷泉区域最脆弱的3个因素为人群密度、夜间防灾经验意识和人员自救互救能力。该模型数据准确、视图直观,可为城市景区夜游应急网格化管理提供理论支持。

In order to deeply analyze the causes of vulnerability for the dense crowd being prone to occur the stampede incident at night tour in the urban scenic spots,the human-environment coupling system was used to comprehensively analyze three factors of the crowd vulnerability model,namely the exposure,sensitivity and adaptability.According to the existing standards and norms and the questionnaires,the vulnerability indexes were screened,and based on the combination of subjective and objective weights in the game idea,a comprehensive assessment model of vulnerability with the combination weighting and cloud model was constructed.Taking the Big Wild Goose Pagoda leisure tourism scenic spot as an example,the cloud algorithm was used to obtain the assessment cloud map of indexes at each layer,and the final assessment results were obtained by comparing with the standard cloud map.The results showed that the vulnerability of the four sites in the example were all in the“medium”and“low”areas,and the three most vulnerable factors of the central fountain area were the crowd density,the experience and awareness of night disaster prevention,and the ability of self-rescue and mutual rescue of personnel.The model has the accurate data and intuitive view,which provides theoretical support for the emergency grid management of night tour in the urban scenic spots.