出口贸易、流动劳动力与工资水平——来自CMDS数据的经验证据

Export trade, migrant labor and wages: an empirical evidence from CMDS data

提高流动劳动力工资是我国全面建成小康社会、缩小收入差距的关键。出口贸易具有显著的地区劳动力市场效应,会影响流动劳动力工资水平。结合2011—2017年全国流动人口动态监测(CMDS)数据,系统考察了出口贸易对流动劳动力工资及其内部工资差距的影响。结果发现:第一,出口贸易规模显著正向影响流动劳动力工资水平,且2011—2017年出口贸易对流动劳动力工资的边际效应不断上升。出口贸易对流动劳动力不同分位点影响模式存在差异,且呈现动态变化趋势,从有利于低收入群体逐渐转向有利于高收入群体。第二,出口贸易对流动劳动力内部收入差距的影响从缩小流动劳动力工资收入差距转变为拉大流动劳动力内部工资差距。第三,出口贸易对流动劳动力工资影响随着年龄的增加而逐渐减小,女性流动劳动力、技能劳动力、制造业部门和贸易部门流动劳动力工资受出口贸易影响更大。第四,出口贸易对不同流入时长的流动劳动力工资水平均有正向效应,且随着时长的增加,该效应在不断增加。出口贸易对市内跨县流动劳动力工资效益最大,其次为省内跨市,最后为跨省流动。基于省内流动和跨省流动工资差异分解表明:省内流动和跨省流动劳动力特征差异是其工资差距的主要原因,歧视性因素则是次要原因;出口贸易可以解释省内流动和跨省流动劳动力工资差距缩小。

Increasing the wages of the migrant labor force is the key for China to building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and narrowing the income gap. Export trade has a significant regional labor market effect, which will affect the wage level of migrant labor. Combined with China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)from 2011 to 2017, this paper systematically studies the impact of export trade on migrant labor wages and wage gaps. The results are as follows. First, the scale of export trade positively affects the wage level of migrant labor, and the marginal effect of export trade on the wage of migrant labor keeps rising from 2011 to 2017. Besides, the impact of export trade on different quantiles of migrant labor is different, and has dynamic changes, gradually shifting from favoring low-income groups to favoring high-income groups. Second, the impact of export trade on the internal income gap of the migrant labor force has changed from being conducive to narrowing the wage gap to widening it. Third, the impact of export trade on the wages of migrant labors gradually decreases with age, and the wages of female migrant labor, skilled labor, and labor in manufacturing and trade sectors are more affected by export trade. Fourth, for migrant labors with different inflow time, export trade always has a positive effect on the wage level, and this effect is increasing with time. Considering the differences in labor between inter-provincial mobility and intra-provincial mobility, export trade has the greatest benefit to the wages of inter-county labor in the same city, followed by those of inter-city labor in the same province, and finally inter-provincial labor wages. Based on the decomposition of wage differences between intra-provincial and inter-provincial mobility, it is shown that the difference in the characteristics of the labor force within and across provinces is the main reason for the wage gap, and discriminatory factors are the secondary reason;and export trade can explain the shrinking wage gap between intra-provincial and inter-provincial migrant labor.