财政可持续与金融稳定——基于中国的经验研究

Fiscal Sustainability and Financial Stability:The Case of China

本文在系统梳理财政可持续与金融稳定相关的国际国内研究基础上,从我国财政政策实践与金融稳定发展的经验事实出发定性分析了我国财政可持续与金融稳定之间的经济动态关系,并运用时变参数向量自回归模型量化分析了我国财政可持续与金融稳定之间的数量关系。研究发现:第一,我国财政可持续与金融稳定之间存在复杂互动关系。积极财政政策促进了金融发展,但也积累了包括无序发展的影子银行等在内的金融风险。金融扩张刺激了以债务为基础的财政支出规模扩大,为地方政府债务风险激增提供了宽松的金融环境;同时,金融扩张也诱发金融“脱实向虚”问题的产生,增加实体经济运行风险,影响财政可持续。第二,短期内,货币信贷政策与财政支出政策存在一定替代效应,信贷扩张与财政支出增长之间相互挤出,有利于维持金融稳定和财政可持续;但是,长期内,两者之间存在正向反馈效应,信贷扩张与财政支出增长之间相互放大,存在同时诱发财政与金融双重危机的可能。第三,我国财政政策具有一定的顺周期特性,而货币政策表现出比较明显的逆周期特性。

After reviewing the literature on fiscal sustainability and financial stability,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between fiscal sustainability and financial stability in China by investigating its experience on fiscal policy practice and financial development during the past two decades.And then it conducts econometric analysis of the case of China with time-varying parameter vector auto-regression model.The results indicate that:(1)there is complicated interaction between fiscal sustainability and financial stability in China.Proactive fiscal policy promoted the development of finance system,but it has also created and stored up huge risk to the financial system such as rapidly unregulated development of shadow banks.Financial boom stimulates a sharp rising in fiscal spending by building up easy financial environment to induce local government to overissue government liabilities,which resulted in a surge of government debt risks.Additively,financial boom cause serious problem of"funds arbitraging without serving real economy",which aggravates the risks of economic disorder and fiscal unsustainability.(2)In short term,there are substitution effects between monetary credit expansion and fiscal spending expansion,which means credit expansion and fiscal spending expansion crowds out each other.This kind of short-run substitution effects are helpful to ensure financial stability and fiscal sustainability.However,in long term,there exists positive feedback effects between monetary credit policy and fiscal policy.As a result,credit expansion and fiscal expenditure expansion could accelerate each other and then possibly lead to a fiscal and financial"twin crisis".(3)Monetary credit policy and fiscal policy have different characters of cyclicality in China:monetary policy is counter-cyclical,but fiscal policy appears somewhat pro-cyclical.