多源异构数据贝叶斯统计融合可靠性评估模型

BAYESIAN STATISTICAL FUSION RELIABILITY EVALUATION MODEL OF MULTI-SOURCE HETEROGENEOUS DATA

为解决小子样高可靠性长寿命产品的可靠性评估,提高可靠性评估的精准度,采用贝叶斯方法构建多个信息源数据融合的贝叶斯可靠性评估模型。首先,该模型选择一组数据作为另一信息源的最初先验信息,根据贝叶斯估计融合得到后验密度,并将其作为下一信息源的先验分布;通过依次迭代,得到多源异构数据的联合后验密度和可靠性指标数据,进而完成相应的可靠性分析。最后,通过仿真算例验证了该模型的合理性与有效性。

In order to solve the reliability evaluation of small samples for the high reliability,long-life products and to improve the accuracy of reliability evaluation,the Bayesian reliability evaluation model of multiple information source data fusion was carried out.First,a set of data as the initial prior information of another information source in this model was selected,by using the posterior density according to Bayesian estimation.Then,it as the prior distribution of the next information source was used.Through iteration,the joint posterior density and reliability index data of multi-source heterogeneous data are obtained,and the corresponding reliability analysis is completed.Finally,a simulation example verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the model.