高技术制造业的技术创新、产业升级与产业韧性

Technological Innovation,Industrial Upgrading and Industrial Resilience of High-tech Manufacturing Industry

基于1997—2019年中国高技术制造业时序数据,在理论分析的基础上,运用最小二乘法、工具变量两阶段最小二乘法、中介效应和门槛效应模型对技术创新、产业升级如何影响产业韧性进行了实证研究。研究发现:技术创新对高技术制造业韧性具有正向效应,且对冲击韧性的正向效应更强;从中介效应角度,产业升级在技术创新对产业韧性的正向影响中发挥中介效应,存在技术创新通过推进产业升级,进而增强产业韧性的间接效应,且对断裂韧性发挥的中介效应强于冲击韧性;从门槛效应角度,产业韧性能够做为门槛变量,在技术创新、产业升级对产业韧性的促进作用中发挥门槛效应,高产业韧性水平下,技术创新、产业升级对产业韧性的正向促进作用增强。研究结论为高技术制造业增强产业韧性水平,推进制造强国建设提供政策启示。

Based on the time series data of China’s high-tech manufacturing industry from 1997 to 2019,and based on the theoretical analysis,the least square method,the two-stage least square method of instrumental variables,the mediating effect and the threshold effect model were used to conduct an empirical study on how technological innovation and industrial upgrading affect industrial resilience. The results show that technological innovation has a positive effect on the resilience of high-tech manufacturing industry. It has a stronger positive effect on impact resilience. Industrial upgrading plays a mediating role in the positive effect of technological innovation on industrial resilience,and there is an indirect effect that technological innovation enhances industrial resilience through promoting industrial upgrading. Industrial upgrading has a stronger mediating effect on fracture resilience than impact resilience.Industrial resilience can be used as threshold variables,and plays a threshold effect in the promotion of technological innovation and industrial upgrading on industrial resilience. Under the high level of industrial resilience, the positive promoting effects of technological innovation and industrial upgrading on industrial resilience are enhanced. The research conclusions provide policy enlightenment for the high-tech manufacturing industry to enhance the level of industrial resilience and promote the construction of manufacturing power.