中国新型城镇化发展水平的区域差异与分布动态演进

Regional Differences and Distribution Dynamics of the Development Level of New Urbanization in China

文章从人口、经济、空间、环境及社会五个维度选取21个指标,构建了新型城镇化发展水平的评价指标体系,基于2005—2019年中国30个省份的数据测度了中国新型城镇化发展水平,运用基尼系数分解法、核密度估计方法以及σ收敛模型分析了中国新型城镇化发展水平的区域差异、分布动态和收敛性。研究发现:(1)样本期间,中国新型城镇化发展水平提升较快,呈现"东-中-西"依次递减的阶梯式分布格局,新型城镇化发展的空间集聚效应显著增强。(2)中国整体新型城镇化发展水平差异缩小,协同性增强,新型城镇化发展水平差异主要来源于区域间差异,东部与西部的区域间差异最大,东部与中部的区域间差异次之,中部与西部的区域间差异最小,且均呈现不断缩小的态势。(3)中国新型城镇化发展水平出现了σ收敛,东部、中部地区均呈显著单峰分布,并不存在极化现象和σ收敛,而西部地区极化趋势减弱,呈现σ收敛特征。

This paper selects 21 specific indicators from five dimensions of population,economy,space,environment and society to construct a comprehensive evaluation system for new urbanization.Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to2019,the development level of new urbanization in China is measured.Using the Kernel density estimation method,global spatial autocorrelation,Gini coefficient decomposition method andσconvergence model,the regional differences,dynamic distribution and random convergence of China’s new urbanization development are analyzed.The findings are as follows:(1)The development level of China’s new urbanization has improved rapidly,presenting a“east-central-west”stepwise distribution pattern,and the spatial agglomeration effect has been significantly enhanced.Six provinces with high-level development of new urbanization,including Guangdong and Jiangsu,are concentrated in the eastern region,while most of the provinces in the central region are in the stage of coordinated development but the speed of improvement is the highest.The development of new urbanization in western China is relatively backward but the growth rate is fast.(2)The differences in the overall level of new urbanization in China are narrowing,and the synergy is increasing.The differences in the development level of new urbanization are mainly caused by the regional differences.The differences between the eastern and western regions are the largest,followed by the differences between the eastern and central regions,and the differences between the central and western regions are the smallest,showing a trend of shrinking.(3)The new urbanization level in China showsσconvergence,and the eastern and central regions show a significant unimodal distribution without the phenomenon of polarization andσconvergence,while the western region shows a weakening trend of polarization andσconvergence.