Predictive model of re-hospitalization in patients with coronary artery disease combined with heart failure

Background The number of patients with coronary artery disease(CAD)complicated with heart failure(HF)in China is large,the prognosis is poor,and the re-hospitalization rate is high.This study established a predictive model of re-hospitalization factors for patients with CAD and HF.Methods A total of 326 patients with CAD and HF who were hospitalized in the Department of Cardiology of Guangdong Provincial People.s Hospital from2019 to 2020 and were selected.The medical records of patients were collected by electronic medical record system and followed up for 6 months.Step-wise logistic regression analysis was used to select the potential predictors of re-hospitalization.The risk factors related to re-hospitalization of CAD with HF(P<0.10)were included in the final multivariate logistic regression model.The predictive efficacy of re-hospitalization risk factors for CAD complicated with HF was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results Re-hospitalization occurred in 83 patients(26%)during the 6-month follow-up.New York Heart Association(NYHA)class(per 1-level increment,adjusted OR:1.45,95%CI:1.14-2.23,P=0.034),smoking(adjusted OR:2.30,95%CI:1.20-4.38,P=0.012),drinking(adjusted OR:2.22,95%CI:1.08-4.56,P=0.029)and the use of statin(adjusted OR:0.50,95%CI:0.25-0.98)were independent predictors of re-hospitalization.The predictors showed a good performance with the area under curve(AUC)of 0.702(95%CI:0.632-0.754).Conclusions This study developed a novel prediction model for re-hospitalization among patients complicated with CAD and HF,which included four easily accessible clinical variables(NYHA class,smoking,drinking and the use of statins).This model provided a theoretical basis for the identification,intervention and treatment of such patients.