缅孟边境罗兴亚难民的人口学特征及其对区域地缘政治关系的影响——基于Palong Khali地区难民营地的分析

The Demographic Characteristics of Rohingya Refugees on the Myanmar-Bangladesh Border and Its Impact on Regional Geopolitical Relations—Based on Analysis of Refugee Camps in Palong Khali District

基于联合国难民署的动态监测数据,对2018年1月至2020年9月期间的缅孟边境罗兴亚难民人口规模、人口结构及其对区域地缘政治关系的影响进行分析。研究表明:1)缅孟边境罗兴亚难民规模大且呈不断增长的态势;女性难民多于男性,难民年龄结构趋于年轻型,以18岁以下的未成年人为主,青壮年难民占总人口比重次之且增长快速;在空间分布上表现出典型的“距缅孟边境的距离衰变规律”,即难民营地向西部扩张,难民规模呈现自东向西递减的分布规律。2)罗兴亚难民的人口规模及结构对区域地缘政治关系产生了显著影响。一是深刻影响着缅甸的民主化进程;二是对缅孟边境安全形成挑战,导致缅孟关系趋于紧张;三是引发了多地缘行为体的介入与关注,进而引发了围绕难民问题的地缘政治博弈,导致东盟内部的分化及其地缘政治的外溢效应。3)相较于部分西方国家及国际组织,中国提出的“三步走”解决方案符合缅孟两国的实际情况,在中缅孟联合工作组机制下,罗兴亚难民问题正朝着合作共商的道路积极推进解决。

In the 21 st century, the refugees’ situation is one of the key problematic issues in the international community, which not only affects the security and stability of border areas but also has a profound impact on neighboring countries and even the international community. In late August 2017, a new round of the Rohingya crisis broke out, and the "Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army"(ARSA) launched a series of attacks on Myanmar,resulting in a large-scale bloody conflict between the Rohingya and Rakhine. The outbreak of this incident led to hundreds of thousands of Rohingya people across the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh, fleeing to Cox’s Bazar region of Bangladesh. The influx of refugees over a brief period of time brought excessive pressure to poor Bangladesh. The long-standing Rohingya refugee problem gradually evolved from Myanmar’s domestic contradictions to the international community’s intense issues. Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the UNHCR, this study analyzes the population scale and structure of Rohingya refugees on the MyanmarBangladesh border and its impact on regional geopolitical relations from January 2018 to September 2020 from the perspective of demographic geography and political geography. Given this background, this research shows :1) Rohingya refugees in Palong Khali district on the Myanmar-Bangladesh borders are large and growing. There are more female refugees than men;the age structure of Rohingya refugees tends to be low, the main age is under18 years old, and the proportion of young and middle-aged refugees in the total population is minor and grows rapidly;spatial structure shows a typical "law of distance decay from Myanmar-Bangladesh border, " that is, the refugee camps expand to the west, and the scale of refugees presents a spatial distribution law of decreasing from east to west. 2) The population scale and structure of Rohingya refugees have a significant impact on regional geopolitical relations. First, it has a profound affect on the democratization process of Myanmar;second, it poses a challenges to Myanmar-Bangladesh border security, which leads to tensions in Myanmar-Bangladesh relations;third, it arouses the intervention and attention of many geo-actors. This led to a geopolitical game surrounding the refugee issue, leading to divisions within ASEAN, as well as geopolitical spillover effects. 3) Compared with some western countries and international organizations, the "three-step" solution proposed by China is in line with the actual situation of Myanmar and Bangladesh. Under the mechanism of the China – Myanmar –Bangladesh Joint Working Group, the Rohingya refugee issue is moving toward cooperation and consultation.The study of the demographic characteristics of Rohingya refugees on the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh and their influence on regional geopolitical relations provides a reference for the solution of this complex issue.