面向碳达峰目标的重庆市碳减排路径

Research on Chongqing’s carbon emission reduction path towards the goal of carbon peak

以重庆市为案例构建本地化LEAP模型,借助LMDI分解、Tapio脱钩弹性系数、单一措施减排效果比较以及减污降碳交叉弹性,探寻重庆市碳达峰目标下的关键影响因素及其碳减排路径特征.结果表明:重庆市在当前碳减排措施力度下难以实现2030年前碳达峰目标,若强化碳减排措施,重庆市可于2025年前实现碳达峰目标,峰值约为1.62亿t.产业终端能耗强度、能源消费结构、产业结构以及电力生产结构是影响重庆市碳达峰目标的关键因素.控制工业能耗和调整产业结构的碳减排效果相对其他措施更为显著,且均具有减污降碳协同效应,应作为重庆市碳减排路径的优先选择.

Taking Chongqing as a case, the localization LEAP model was built. Based on this model and further by means of LMDI decomposition, Tapio decoupling elasticity, comparison of emission reduction effect of single measures and cross-elasticity of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, the pathway to peak carbon emission and the corresponding factors were explored in the context of Chongqing City. It is difficult for Chongqing to peak carbon emissions by 2030 under its current measures. If the carbon emission reduction measures are strengthened, Chongqing can achieve a peak of 162 million tons carbon emissions by 2025. It reveals that the intensity of industrial terminal energy, the energy consumption structure, as well as the industrial structure and the power production structure are four key factors affecting Chongqing’s carbon peak goal. By comparison, controlling industrial energy consumption and adjusting industrial structure can obtain more significant effects on carbon emission reduction. Furthermore, these two measures prove synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and should be the priority of Chongqing on its pathway to peak carbon emissions.