基于UMT模型的幸福河绩效评价及障碍因子诊断

Performance evaluation and obstacle factor diagnosis of Happy River based on UMT

基于马斯洛需求层次理论,建立包含健康之河、平安之河、富民之河、和谐之河、文化之河、宜居之河6个层级的幸福河评价指标体系,结合未确知测度理论(Unascertained measure theory,UMT)与障碍诊断模型,以黄河甘肃段、宁夏段、内蒙古段为例,分析其2015~2019年幸福河建设绩效并分别对阻碍幸福河建设的障碍因子进行诊断分析.结果表明:甘肃段幸福河等级由2015年的Ⅳ等级(不幸福)提升至Ⅱ等级(幸福),绩效指数从2015年的2.565提升至2019年的3.471;平安之河层级障碍度总体呈增长势,年均增长速度为10.94%,其余层级障碍度总体呈减少趋势,在未来建设中应以提高植被覆盖率和水土流失治理比例为重点提升方向.宁夏段幸福河等级指数由2015年的Ⅲ等级(一般)提升至Ⅱ等级(幸福),绩效指数从2015年的2.558提升至2019年的3.302;健康之河、宜居之河、平安之河层级障碍度呈增长势,年均增长速度为7.29%、3.60%和1.98%;宜居之河层级障碍度均值达到26.870%,是制约宁夏段幸福河建设的最大障碍因子,在未来建设中应以提高人均水资源占有量、减少万元GDP用水量为重点提升方向.内蒙古段幸福河等级指数由2015年的Ⅲ等级(一般)提升至Ⅱ等级(幸福),绩效指数从2015年的2.782提升至2019年的3.387;宜居之河、健康之河、平安之河层级障碍度呈增长势,年均增长速度为8.93%、3.91%和3.71%;宜居之河层级障碍度均值达到28.90%,是制约内蒙古段幸福河建设的最大障碍因子,在未来建设中应以减少万元工业增加值用水量、提高水土流失治理比例为重点提升方向.

Based on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory, a Happy River evaluation index system involving six levels: healthy river,safe river, enriching people’s river, harmonious river, cultural river and livable river was established. Combined with unascertained measurement model and obstacle diagnosis model, Gansu section, Ningxia section and Inner Mongolia section of Yellow River were taken as examples to analyze the construction performance of Happy River from 2015 to 2019 and diagnose the obstacle factors hindering its construction. The Happy River grade index of Gansu province increased from grade Ⅳ(unhappy) in 2015 to grade Ⅱ(happy) and the performance index increased from 2.565 in 2015 to 3.471 in 2019. The hierarchy obstacle degree of safe river presented an increasing trend with annual growth rate of 10.94%, while other hierarchy obstacle degrees showed a decreasing trend.Therefore, increasing vegetation coverage rate and soil erosion control ratio should be focused on in the future’s construction. The Happy River grade index of Ningxia region increased from grade Ⅲ(general) in 2015 to grade Ⅱ(happiness) and the performance index increased from 2.558 in 2015 to 3.302 in 2019. The hierarchy obstacle degrees of healthy river, livable river and safe river showed an increasing trend with an annual growth rate of 7.29%, 3.60% and 1.98%, respectively. The mean hierarchy obstacle degree of livable river reached 26.870%, which was the biggest obstacle factor restricting the construction of Happy River in Ningxia.As a result, increasing per capita water resources and reducing water consumption of ten thousand yuan of GDP should be focused on in the future’s construction. The Happy River grade index of Inner Mongolia section increased from grade Ⅲ(general) in 2015 to grade II(happiness) and the performance index increased from 2.782 in 2015 to 3.387 in 2019. The hierarchy obstacle degrees of livable river, healthy river and safe river showed an increasing trend with the average annual growth rate of 8.93%, 3.91% and 3.71%,respectively. The mean hierarchy obstacle degree of livable river reached 28.90%, which was the biggest obstacle factor restricting the construction of Happy River in Inner Mongolia. Thus, it is necessary to reduce the water consumption of ten thousand yuan of industrial added value and increase the proportion of soil erosion treatment.