农户城镇化意愿及其影响因素研究——基于可持续生计分析框架

The urbanization willingness and its influencing factors of rural households:A case study based on the framework of sustainable livelihood analysis

从生计角度探求农户的城镇化意愿及其影响因素,对提高农户可持续生计能力、激励农户进行城镇化有重要现实作用。本文基于可持续生计分析框架,构建农户城镇化意愿概念模型,利用湖南省桃江县农村入户调研数据,分析农户城镇化意愿和生计资本差异,采用二元Logistic回归模型探讨农户城镇化意愿的影响因素。结果表明,现阶段桃江县农户城镇定居意愿不高,其中仅有18.84%的农户有明确的进城居住意愿,且偏向定居小城镇。不同进城定居意愿的农户群体存在生计资本差异,愿意进城居住的农户群体在人力资本、金融资本、自然资本和脆弱性环境方面显著高于不愿意进城居住的农户群体,但物质资本存量显著低于后者。具体而言,有效劳动力数量、家庭抚养比和家庭总收入显著正向影响农户的城镇定居意愿,距城镇距离显著负向影响农户的城镇定居意愿。因此,应分层次、有针对性地加强农户的可持续生计能力,重点提高农户的金融资本,促进农户各类生计资本之间的转换;继续扩大城市公共服务的覆盖范围,解决城镇迁移农户的城镇化生计诉求,以提升农户城镇化意愿,进而推动我国新型城镇化高效发展。

Exploring rural households’ urbanization willingness and its influencing factors from the perspective of livelihood plays an important practical role in improving farmers’ sustainable livelihood ability and promoting urbanization process.Based on the framework of sustainable livelihood analysis,this paper builds a conceptual framework of farmers’ urbanization willingness.Based on survey data of rural households in Taojiang County of Hunan Province,this paper analyzes the differences between rural households’ urbanization willingness and livelihood capital and adopts a binary logistic regression model to explore the influencing factors from the perspective of sustainable livelihood.Results show that farmers’ willingness to settle in cities is not high at this stage.Among them,18.84% of the surveyed farmers have a clear intention to settle in cities,especially in small towns.There is a difference in livelihood capitalamong rural households with different willingness to settle in cities.Rural households that are willing to settle in cities have significantly higher human capital,financial capital,natural capital,and vulnerability context than those who are not willing to move to cities.But their physical capital stock is lower than the latter.Specifically,effective labor force quantity,the dependency ratio of family and the total income have significant positive impacts on farmers’ willingness to settle in cities and towns,but the distance from cities or towns has a significant negative influence.To enhance the urbanization willingness of rural households and promote the efficient development of new urbanization in China,the government should strengthen the sustainable livelihood ability of farmers at different levels,focus on improving farmers’ financial capital,and promote the transformation among farmers’ various livelihood capitals.At the same time,expanding the coverage of urban public services to solve the urbanization livelihood needs of urban migrant farmers is also very important.