滇东北草地贪夜蛾(Spodoptera frugiperda)发生危害的制约因素分析

Analysis on the constrained factors of the occurrence and harm of Spodoptera frugiperda in Northeastern Yunnan,China

草地贪夜蛾(Spodoptera frugiperda)是对中国粮食安全造成极大威胁的农业害虫.滇东北地区既是云南玉米种植的主要地区,也是草地贪夜蛾向中国内陆扩散的主要落点和通道.2019年云南昭通地区首次报道了草地贪夜蛾发生.明晰影响草地贪夜蛾在滇东北地区发生的环境因子,有助于掌握其在该地区发生分布的规律,为提供有效防控措施提供依据.研究通过对2019年云南昭通地区贪夜蛾发生密度和环境因子进行随机森林法分析,发现对草地贪夜蛾分布影响较大的因子为年温度变化范围、湿度变化方差、温度变化方差、旱地面积和最冷月均温.逐步回归分析模型表明,年温度变化范围和最湿月降雨量与草地贪夜蛾的发生为负相关关系;最热月均温、最湿季降雨量与草地贪夜蛾的发生分布呈正相关.旱地面积也是影响草地贪夜蛾发生分布的重要因素.在今后的研究中,还需要进一步分析防控措施对草地贪夜蛾的发生分布的影响.

Fall armyworm(FAW)(Spodoptera frugiperda)is an agricultural pest that poses a great threat to China food security.The Northeastern Yunnan is not only the main area for corn planting in Yunnan,but also the main place and corridor for the spread of FAW to China.In 2019,FAW was reported for the first time in Zhaotong,Yunnan,and clarifying the environmental factors that affect its distribution can help implement effective prevention and control in this area.This study conducted a random forest analysis on the occurrence density and environmental factors of FAW in Zhaotong,Yunnan in 2019,and found that the factors which have a greater impact on the distribution of FAW are temperature annual range,precipitation seasonality,temperature seasonality,dryland area and mean temperature of the coldest month.The stepwise regression analysis model shows that temperature annual range and precipitation of wettest month are negatively correlated with the occurrence distribution of FAW;Mean temperature of the warmest month and precipitation of wettest quarter are positively correlated with the occurrence distribution.Dryland area is also an important factor affecting the distribution of FAW.In future research,it is necessary to further analyze the influence of prevention and control measures on the occurrence and distribution of FAW.