考虑碰撞角色的双车事故驾驶伤害程度研究

Driver injury severity in two-vehicle accidents considering collision role

为研究双车事故中驾驶员伤害程度的影响因素及碰撞角色的交互作用,基于中国深圳市在2018—2020年的双车碰撞事故数据,利用随机森林算法计算特征变量的重要度以筛选出候选自变量,建立考虑碰撞角色的驾驶员受伤严重程度二元logit模型.结果表明,碰撞角色、事故责任、车型、事故形态、驾龄、能见度、车辆间碰撞形态、学历、道路等级、安全保护装置使用情况、路侧防护设施类型及照明条件与双车事故驾驶员的伤害程度显著相关;碰撞角色与车型和事故形态存在显著的交互效应.研究结果有助于深入理解双车事故中驾驶员伤害程度的影响机理,帮助交通管理部门制定相应的交通安全对策.

In order to study the influencing factors of driver injury severity and the interaction effects of collision roles in two-vehicle accidents, based on the data of two-vehicle collision accidents in Shenzhen from 2018 to 2020,we calculate the value of importance degree of characteristic variables by using random forest algorithm to screen out the candidate independent variables, and establish a binary logit model of driver injury severity considering collision angle. The results show that collision role, accident responsibility, vehicle type, accident form, driving experience,visibility, collision form between vehicles, educational background, road grade, use of safety protection devices,roadside protection facilities and lighting conditions are significantly associated with the driver injury severity in twovehicle accidents. Meanwhile, there are significant interaction effects among collision role, vehicle type and accident form. The results are helpful for understanding the influence mechanism of driver injury severity in two-vehicle accidents and can help traffic management departments to formulate corresponding traffic safety countermeasures.