对“阿拉伯之春”与中东民主化若干问题的思考

Reflections on The Arab Spring and Several Core Issues of Democratization in the Middle East

本文选择伊斯兰主义、军人干政、身份政治三个典型问题,分析它们对"阿拉伯之春"的影响。首先,突尼斯和埃及的政治转型表明,伊斯兰主义与民主的关系具有不确定性,伊斯兰主义既可以支持民主,也可以反对民主。其次,军人干政在阿拉伯国家民主转型过程中的作用异常复杂,对其进行评价应客观具体。就本文选取的三个案例而言,军人干政的形式、程度和作用各不相同:在突尼斯,军队基本未干预民主转型;在埃及,军队对政治转型进行全程干预并且不断变换角色;在也门,军队部落化导致了政治转型碎片化。最后,本文研究了身份政治对阿拉伯国家民主化的复杂影响。在国家内部,身份政治是阿拉伯国家冲突性和竞争性政治的重要认同来源和社会机制。在地区范围内,广泛存在的泛民族主义、泛伊斯兰主义等政治思潮,导致地区国家基于身份政治决定外交政策甚至干涉他国事务,导致某国的民主进程被外部干预阻断。总之,阿拉伯国家的民主化进程异常复杂,不可一概而论。

Three core issues-Islamism,military intervention,and identity politics-have had an important impact on democratic transformation in Arab countries(the Arab Spring).The political transformation in Tunisia and Egypt shows that the relationship between Islamism and democracy is uncertain.Islamism can both support and oppose democracy.The role of military intervention during the Arab Spring is highly complicated.The forms,degrees,and functions of military intervention varied significantly across countries.In Tunisia,the military forces had not intervened in the democratic transition;in Egypt,the military forces interfered in the political transition continuously and changed its roles constantly;in Yemen,the tribalization of its military forces led to the fragmentation of the political transition.The analysis of the sectarian issues in Bahrain and the Kurdish issues in Syria and Iraq highlights the complex impact of identity politics on the democratization of Arab states.In Arab countries,identity politics is an important source and social mechanism for conflict and competitive politics.On the regional level,the widespread pan-nationalism,pan-Islamism,and other political ideologies have influenced how certain countries formulated their foreign policies or interfered in other countries’affairs,causing the democratic process of a country blocked by external intervention.Therefore,this article reveals the complex processes of the Arab Spring and suggests that any generalization about Arab countries’democratic transformation will have limitations.