新型数字基础设施是否促进对外贸易发展?——基于“一带一路”贸易视角的中介模型分析

Will New Digital Infrastructure Boost Foreign Trade?——Analysis of Intermediary Model Based on "the Belt and Road" from Trade Perspective

随着新一代信息革命的到来,新型数字基础设施建设成为中国与“一带一路”沿线国家经济高质量发展的有力支撑。文章基于2013—2019年中国353家上市公司数据以及64个沿线国家的面板数据,构建中介模型分析中国新型数字设施对中国与沿线国家贸易的影响。研究表明中国新型数字基础设施在中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的双边贸易及进、出口贸易均具有显著促进作用,但作用机理有所差异。中国新型数字基础设施在中国对沿线国家的双边贸易和进口贸易中的影响主要依靠贸易成本和全要素生产率发挥作用,而中国对沿线国家的出口贸易则主要依靠贸易成本发挥作用。在此前提下,中国加快新型数字基础设施建设,要注意合理布局,既要培育贸易增长新动能,又要优化出口结构布局,通过加大对新型数字基础设施建设的投资,构建新型数字基础设施合作机制,推进新型数字基础设施互联互通的水平,促进双方贸易合作的高质量发展。

With a new generation of information revolution, the construction of new digital infrastructure has become a strong support for high-quality economic development in China and countries along the Belt and Road. This paper constructs an intermediary model to analyze the impact of new digital facilities on foreign trade, based on the data of 353 listed companies in China and panel data of 64 countries along the Belt and Road from 2013 to 2019. The research shows that China’s new digital infrastructure has a significant promotion effect on bilateral trade and import and export trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road, but the mechanism of action is different. The impact of new digital infrastructure on China’s bilateral trade and import trade with countries along the Belt and Road depends on trade cost and total factor productivity, while the impact of new digital infrastructure on China’s export trade with countries along the Belt and Road mainly depends on trade cost. On this premise, when accelerating the construction of new digital infrastructure, China should pay attention to rational layout, cultivate new drivers of trade growth and optimize the layout of export structure.