安徽省矿业城市生态安全动态评价及预测

Dynamic evaluation and forecast of ecological security of mining cities in Anhui Province

为解决评价过程中的随机性和不确定性问题,将正态云模型引入到生态安全评价中。基于压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型构建生态安全综合评价指标体系,利用熵权法确定各指标权重,对安徽省9座矿业城市2010—2018年生态安全状况进行动态评价,结合BP神经网络算法对未来7年发展状况进行预测。结果表明:2010—2018年,安徽省矿业城市生态安全整体从Ⅲ级提升到Ⅳ级;各矿业城市发展内部存在差异,淮南生态安全较差;在未来7年中,安徽省矿业城市生态安全整体呈上升趋势,压力、状态子系统属于较低水平。

The normal cloud model is introduced to avoid the problems of randomness and ambiguity in the process of ecological security evaluation.This paper constructs an ecological security evaluation index system based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model,uses the entropy method to determine the weight of each indicator,dynamically evaluates the ecological security status of nine mining cities in Anhui from 2010 to 2018,and combines the BP neural network algorithm to forecast the development status in the next seven years.The results show that from 2010 to 2018,the overall ecological security of mining cities in Anhui has been upgraded from levelⅢto levelⅣ;there are differences in the development of various mining cities,and the ecological security of Huainan is poor;in the next seven years,the ecological security of mining cities in Anhui Province is on the rise,and the pressure and state subsystems belong to a lower level.