价值链长度、国内大循环与经济增长——基于我国制造业的实证分析

Value Chain Length,Domestic Big Cycle and Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis Based on China′s Manufacturing Industry

本文从国际生产分工理论出发,分析价值链长度对经济增长的规模报酬效应和交易成本效应关系,发现后向联系的价值链受二效应的双重影响,其价值链长度与制造业增加值增长率存在非线性的U型关系。同时,由于要素稀缺性决定其传递长度,因而前向连接的价值链长度对制造业增加值增长率具有正向作用。通过将国内价值链长度作为国内大循环的代理变量,发现不管是基于前向连接还是后向连接的国内价值链长度,均对增加值增长率具有正向的促进作用,全球价值链和传统最终品贸易价值链长度对增加值增长作用不显著。因而,要畅通国民经济循环,应加快要素市场改革,吸引高质量创新要素,充分发挥各区域比较优势,加强分工协作,不断增强经济发展动力、活力。

This article embarks from the theory of international division of production,analyze the value chain length on the scale of the economic growth effect and transaction cost effect,discovered to link up the value chain by two effects,as well as the influence of the added value of the length of the value chain and manufacturing growth rate is nonlinear u-shaped relationship,at the same time,due to the factors of scarcity determines the length,Therefore,the length of forward-connected value chain has a positive effect on the growth rate of manufacturing value-added.By taking the length of domestic value chain as a proxy variable of the domestic grand cycle,it is found that whether the length of domestic value chain based on forward connection or backward connection has a positive effect on the growth rate of value-added,while the length of global value chain and traditional value chain of final goods trade has no significant effect on the growth rate of value-added.Therefore,in order to smooth the national economic cycle,we should speed up the reform of factor market,attract high-quality innovative factors,give full play to the comparative advantages of various regions,strengthen the division of labor and cooperation,and constantly enhance the power and vitality of economic development.